Concentrating AI stock allocations in quality companies makes even more sense to me now that the frontier labs have all confirmed their desire to slow AI progress. I don't think frontier development can/will slow down mainly due to China risks. But in the short-term, I think it's inevitable that the AI trade becomes more volatile on the lead up to Anthropic's IPO. The combination of lab uncertainty and macro turmoil might be a force too big for Q2 earnings beats to overcome. I would love to be proven wrong but I think it's wise to be prepared for all scenarios right now. There's no historical precedent to base current AI investment decisions off of, so I would personally caution any over bullishness or bearishness right now. With that in mind, buy and hold is never a bad option under these situations...

今天整体表现还可以， $DELL 涨超11%，目前会员们的收益来到了32%，虽然买的人不多，但我还是会持续很点位和每日日记，其他的都是都是上涨， $ORCL 表现很奇怪，我的理解是大家还是很质疑其融资： DELL：428.4 → 567.290，+32.42% LITE：830 → 927.030，+11.69% ORCL：140 → 150.280，+7.34% MRVL：227 → 236.100，+4.01% AAOI：106 → 105.360，-0.60% MU：932 → 975.260，+4.64% SNDK：1537 → 1633.350，+6.27% COHR： 315(均值) → 305.370，-3.06% 261 → 305.370，+17.00% AXTI：62.42 → 64.770，+3.77% INTC：87.5 → 102.940，+17.65% GOOG：330 → 335.450，+1.65% NBIS： 195 → 224.550，+15.15% 215 → 224.550，+4.44% AEHR：94 → 94.690，+0.73% FN：480 → 414.580，-13.63% CCXI：13.2 → 12.320，-6.67% SIVEF： 按3.5：→ 3.050，-12.86% 按4：→ 3.050，-23.75%

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.

@cherryPayment 确实不太像连续加息周期，核心通胀同比仍在降温
8月真正超预期的是月率，不是年率。年率2.4%离2%目标还有距离，但方向没有掉头向上。 通胀很大一块是能源，不是全面物价失控
汽油单月+3.9%，贡献了整体环比三分之一以上。能源冲击可以证明该加一次，但不自动证明要连加到明年。

Following 6D-Torus, there have been some industry chatters around a full electrical switching ICI for Triggerfish, Google’s next generation TPUv9i manufactured by MediaTek. (1/7)🧵

It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.

BREAKING: Sam Altman says OpenAI will not go public this year due to safety concerns around AI. "I actually think that, given everything happening with safety, right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don't feel pressure on that," Altman said.

对了，也别忘了 open ai也很支持，并且表示大家需要放慢前沿的步伐，还说熔化所有GPU来确保人类存续，那我们去看看他到底做啥了： 他们就在说减速的同一个月发布了史上最强模型，你就不能说发布之后突然说“oh！ 不行，我们不能发展那么快，大家都发展慢一些”，真的很像一个优等生解决了一道难题后大声告诉其他俩个优等生说“ 别思考了，我们休息一下吧” 要知道他们这一次模型在德州Stargate站点用超过10万个GPU进行预训练。 甚至OpenAI联合创始人Greg Brockman在发布时说的是"欢迎来到AGI时代"。 真的很有意思………

我认为说得非常好，但我一直相信人要做到言行一致，那我们别去看他说什么，而是去看他做什么： Dario 在文章里呼吁"放慢前沿AI的推进速度"，提出嵌入式第三方评估员、民主国家协调、全球协调的三步方案。核心信息是：安全研究跟不上能力增长，所以他强调人类必须刻意减速！ 但实际上： 他们在5月份完成了650亿美元的H轮融资，然后估值达9650亿美元。他们2月份估值才3800亿，所以他们在14个月内估值翻了大约15倍。 另外，Anthropic在美国的算力布局已超过15GW，覆盖15个数据中心园区。然后与亚马逊签署了高达5GW的算力扩展协议，同时与Google和Broadcom签署了数GW级别的下一代TPU容量协议。 所以在我看来这丝毫没有"减速"，完全在疯狂囤积算力弹药。 递归自我改进很危险，但自己是在推进的： Anthropic在2025年5月Claude Opus 4在代码优化上实现约3倍加速，然后到2026年4月Claude Mythos Preview达到了52倍。 实际上目前为止Claude现在已经编写了Anthropic约80%的生产代码。并且公司预计到2027年，模型将能处理持续一周的自主任务。我认为Anthropic自己就是推进最快的公司之一。

We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here:

🌟JPモルガンのエコノミストが、9月と12月の利上げを予想する方向に見方を変更 💫7月末まで JPMの基本シナリオは「9月は据え置き、12月に25bp利上げ」 💫最新 一部のJPMエコノミストが「9月も25bp利上げ＋12月も25bp利上げ」へ見方を変更 理由は、インフレが思ったほど下がっていないため あばばばば