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Cryptonary
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At lunchtime the S&P had gone green and looked rather pleased with itself, as if the biggest company in the market losing its chief executive were a normal Thursday. It didn't last. The S&P closed down 0.35% at 7,592 and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.30%. Nvidia finished down 4.3% at $166.19, near the top of its range and well clear of the $148.80 low. Plenty of people bought that open. CoreWeave closed down 6.9% and Nebius 16.8%. AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom 5.5%, which kept the chip index to a 0.5% loss. So the money stayed in semiconductors, but it moved away from anyone who leans on Nvidia's balance sheet. Washington spotted the same thing. After the close a senior Democratic senator asked Congress to look at whether Nvidia is "too big to fail", given the financing it has put behind the AI build-out, and what that could mean for banks and credit markets. That's a question normally saved for banks, and now a chipmaker is getting it. Rates didn't help. The 30-year auction cleared at 5.441% with 2.36 bids for every bond, down from 2.54 last time. The 10-year ended at 5.12%, up 14 basis points since Tuesday, and the 2-year rose 15. Polymarket has about 10% on a 50 basis-point hike in December, up from 7% this morning. Brent rose 3.6% to $96 after Iran said four tankers had been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, while gold fell 3%. Bitcoin is at $71,300, about 3.5% below the day's open, and Strategy lost 6.5%. We said this morning we wouldn't bid the bounce until the financing question got an answer and rates settled down. We're still waiting on both. Friday's producer prices come first, then Nvidia's results on Tuesday, presented by a chief financial officer who is now also the chief executive. The upside case is a soft PPI and a clean quarter that let everyone buy the dip with a clear conscience. We'd take that. If a senator has to ask whether a chipmaker is too big to fail, who exactly is underwriting the next round of data centres?
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