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David Schamis
@dschamis
Founding Partner & CIO - Atlas Merchant Capital; CEO - Hyperliquid Strategies Inc - @HypeStrat; Board of Trustees - Village of Sands Point
加入 April 2009
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While I am usually the last person inclined to talk down a hyperliquid:native bull, when it comes to valuation it is important to be both accurate and precise. @Grayscale assumes approximately $1 billion of 2027 earnings and between 270 million and 310 million HYPE circulating at year-end 2027. That produces approximately $3.25–$3.75 of earnings per token and a 15–18x forward multiple. The math is internally consistent—but it is a circulating-supply multiple, not a more fully diluted measure. At @HypeStrat, our preferred measure is Outstanding Token Supply. We include the full core-contributor allocation, including tokens that remain locked or unvested, because we believe substantially all of that allocation is likely to vest or be issued over time (I don't think that @chameleon_jeff is getting another job anytime soon). We exclude unissued future community emissions and tokens that have been permanently retired or burned. Our current OTS is approximately 476.6 million tokens. Using Grayscale’s same approximately $1 billion earnings assumption and $54 HYPE price, that denominator produces approximately $2.10 of earnings per token and a forward multiple of roughly 26x, rather than 15–18x. HYPE still looks inexpensive relative to $COIN, $HOOD and $CRCL on Grayscale’s own comp set, so I agree with their ultimate conclusion. Our methodology:
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$HYPE trades at a forward multiple of ~15-18x. @HyperliquidX has real cash flows, so it can be valued like a stock, but on earnings per token, not earnings per share. On that basis it still looks cheap versus fintech peers like $COIN, $HOOD and $CRCL. Learn more on the Stack:
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