Welcome to Fed Decision Day! It is striking to see the market pricing in a 90% (yes 90%) probability of a rate hike today despite mixed economic data, uneven demand-side indicators, a delicate supply-side balance, a relatively dovish tone from several senior FOMC members, and a Chair intent on breaking the "hall of mirrors" phenomenon. It is equally interesting to see how eagerly some market participants await the updated rate "dots," even as momentum builds against the current approach to forward guidance. All this underscores just how difficult it is to evolve a Fed–market paradigm anchored by years of handholding, a constant stream of official commentary, excessive backward-looking data dependency, and a forward guidance regime that stumbled into spurious accuracy. More to follow. #economy# #markets# #federalreserve#