Frank Chaparro(@fintechfrank):J.P. Morgan Asset Management added a bitcoin forecast to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time. This is the 31st edition of the annual report. Its 10-year base case for BTC is a 10% compounded return with 55% volatility. That is 2.5 points above its 7.5% estimate for US large caps and 4.5 points above its 5.5% estimate for gold. JPM still does not treat BTC as a portfolio diversifier. It points to unstable correlations and high volatility, and its bear case is -11.2% a year.

Frank Chaparro

@fintechfrank

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Frank Chaparro@fintechfrank

2026.10.20 16:14

J.P. Morgan Asset Management added a bitcoin forecast to its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time. This is the 31st edition of the annual report. Its 10-year base case for BTC is a 10% compounded return with 55% volatility. That is 2.5 points above its 7.5% estimate for US large caps and 4.5 points above its 5.5% estimate for gold. JPM still does not treat BTC as a portfolio diversifier. It points to unstable correlations and high volatility, and its bear case is -11.2% a year.