Garry Tan(@garrytan):Rough estimate on $ productivity lost by Fable 5 ban: $12M per hour Frontier AI-coding daily actives, mid-2026: 5M devs Fully-loaded cost: $90/hr Work routed to Fable in 48 hours: 17.8% Fable is on average ~15% more productive Effective throughput loss per dev = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 2.7% of output 2.7% × $90/hr = ~$2.40/dev/hr × 5M devs = $12M per working hour

Garry Tan

@garrytan

President & CEO @ycombinator —Founder @garryslist—Creator of GStack & GBrain—designer/engineer who helps founders—SF Dem accelerating the boom loop

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Garry Tan@garrytan

2026.06.17 22:00

Rough estimate on $ productivity lost by Fable 5 ban: $12M per hour Frontier AI-coding daily actives, mid-2026: 5M devs Fully-loaded cost: $90/hr Work routed to Fable in 48 hours: 17.8% Fable is on average ~15% more productive Effective throughput loss per dev = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 2.7% of output 2.7% × $90/hr = ~$2.40/dev/hr × 5M devs = $12M per working hour

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