Gary Black(@garyblack00):As I argued this morning, the Fed’s decision to raise rates and pencil in a second rate hike before year-end was probably the most bearish outcome of the three options before the Fed. A one-and-done interest rate hike would likely have been viewed more favorably by investors, but with a potential extended hiking trajectory now on the table, equities and particularly long duration equities could remain under pressure in the months ahead (RAG +2%, RAV +19% both YTD).

2026.09.16 19:16

As I argued this morning, the Fed’s decision to raise rates and pencil in a second rate hike before year-end was probably the most bearish outcome of the three options before the Fed. A one-and-done interest rate hike would likely have been viewed more favorably by investors, but with a potential extended hiking trajectory now on the table, equities and particularly long duration equities could remain under pressure in the months ahead (RAG +2%, RAV +19% both YTD).

Gary Black@garyblack00

2026.09.16 12:36

Possible Fed outcomes today: 1/ Bull case scenario: Dovish hike - Fed raises rates by 25bp and makes it clear that there are no plans to raise rates further (Fed will be data-dependent). One-and-done. 10-year TY likely retreats, good for equities. 2/ Moderate case scenario: Hawkish pause - No change in rates, but hawkish talk that signals a likely hike at next month’s meeting. Highly unlikely because next month’s meeting (10/27-28) is right before midterms. 10-yr TY likely flat or rises, mixed for equities. 3/ Bear case scenario: Hawkish hike - 25bp hike but with signal from Warsh this could be the first of several hikes. Unlikely since Warsh wants to get away from forward guidance. 10-yr TY likely increases, which is bad for equities, particularly long duration equities.