Gregory Brew(@gbrew24):With benefit of hindsight, it does appear as though Iran was pushing its luck back in July, when it resumed attacks on shipping in the southern route. The Iranian calculation was that it was necessary to maintain effective control over Hormuz flows. The result: the MOU is dead, the blockade is back in place, and the US is succeeding (to a partial, but notable extent) at reopening the strait without another deal. Perhaps the status quo swings back in Iran's favor, but right now this looks like a miscalculation to me.

Gregory Brew

@gbrew24

Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.

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Gregory Brew@gbrew24

2026.08.28 17:30

With benefit of hindsight, it does appear as though Iran was pushing its luck back in July, when it resumed attacks on shipping in the southern route. The Iranian calculation was that it was necessary to maintain effective control over Hormuz flows. The result: the MOU is dead, the blockade is back in place, and the US is succeeding (to a partial, but notable extent) at reopening the strait without another deal. Perhaps the status quo swings back in Iran's favor, but right now this looks like a miscalculation to me.

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