steve hsu(@hsu_steve):Lambert estimates US-China AI gap at 2-5 months and that if distillation were shut off this might increase by 1-2 months. Very plausible estimates, in my opinion. I'd say gap is ~6 months and distillation is a relatively modest correction to this.

2026.09.21 23:38

Lambert estimates US-China AI gap at 2-5 months and that if distillation were shut off this might increase by 1-2 months. Very plausible estimates, in my opinion. I'd say gap is ~6 months and distillation is a relatively modest correction to this.

Nathan Lambert@natolambert

2026.09.21 12:04

I was asked by Congressional staff to share my views on open models performance, adoption, and competition vis a vis China. Here’s my briefing with all our latest data and predictions for what comes next. I am very happy to spend time on broader audience content on open models!