Jeff Dorman(@jdorman81):Every FOMC decision is a 50/50 toss up now that the Fed doesn't explicitly tell you what they're going to do, but 60% odds of a hike seem wrong. Treating Warsh’s lack of guidance as inherently hawkish is a mistake. There is a higher variance around outcomes now, but that doesn't mean a higher probabilty of a new outcome.

Jeff Dorman

@jdorman81

CIO @arca - digital assets investing | Former COO of Harvest Exchange | Former Lehman, Merrill, Citadel | Huge Cleveland Sports Fan | CFA charterholder

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Jeff Dorman@jdorman81

2026.09.09 22:38

Every FOMC decision is a 50/50 toss up now that the Fed doesn't explicitly tell you what they're going to do, but 60% odds of a hike seem wrong. Treating Warsh’s lack of guidance as inherently hawkish is a mistake. There is a higher variance around outcomes now, but that doesn't mean a higher probabilty of a new outcome.