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Jim Liu
@jiahanjimliu
9/14: 98.13% IREN, 1.82% TSLA, 0.05% META
加入 November 2016
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AI Buildout: This Time It's The Same Appreciate @mukund but will raise a debate. Here are how long each of the last three economic buildouts lasted before the first bust: 1. Railroads: 1830->1845 = 17 Years 2. Combustion Engine: 1886 -> 1929 = 43 Years 3. Telecom: 1995->2000 = 5 years 4. AI: Nov 2022 -> ??? Telecom was the shortest lived at 5 years and by that measure AI would be Nov 2022 -> Nov 2027. But why Telecom? Why not compare to railroads or combustion engine? Yes this time, it will be there same and there will be a bust. The question has always been when. People have been calling AI top since mid 2025 and we are going into 2027 soon. Each buildout has to be analyzed in detail, not an broad stroke comparison to which ever example you like better whether it is Telecom or Combustion Engine. Devil is always in the details.
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@jiahanjimliu The majority of telcos in 1997-2000 had terrific product market fit. Cisco did too. But sure. “This time is different”.