Joe Hansen(@joehansen):My read: people are mixing three clocks. ➤ One is a single cluster hitting 1 GW first. SpaceX did that. ➤ One is total fleet add per quarter. AWS and Microsoft still win that. ➤ One is live power on live chips this year. That number is smaller than the slide for everyone. 2 GW at SpaceX by year-end can be true and still be smaller than a hyperscaler fleet. Both can be true at once.

2026.08.30 06:45

My read: people are mixing three clocks. ➤ One is a single cluster hitting 1 GW first. SpaceX did that. ➤ One is total fleet add per quarter. AWS and Microsoft still win that. ➤ One is live power on live chips this year. That number is smaller than the slide for everyone. 2 GW at SpaceX by year-end can be true and still be smaller than a hyperscaler fleet. Both can be true at once.

Shanu Mathew@ShanuMathew93

2026.08.29 18:53

Three claims I see on here 100x a day: 1) SpaceX has more compute than anyone. It should reach ~2 GW by year-end. AWS and Microsoft are each adding ~1 GW per quarter globally, with Google and Meta likely in the same range. 2) BTM can add 5–10+ GW annually. Yet SpaceX, supposedly the fastest BTM scaler, will reach ~2 GW after 1–2 years. 3) Anthropic is reliant on SpaceX. Anthropic disclosed >300 MW at Colossus I. SpaceX later said the agreement also covers Colossus II, but has not disclosed the total MW. Dylan Patel estimates Anthropic scales from <2 GW to >5 GW this year. These claims do not reconcile!