Jon Stokes(@jon_stokes):Dario & other AI insiders Scott aligns w/ are giving mid to high single- & multiple-digit p(doom) numbers, but when this question is put to superforecasters they give it 0.3% chance by 2030, 2% chance by 2050. Tetlock's own book says the further out you get the less the method actually works. So the highest-quality superforecaster number 0.3%.

Jon Stokes

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Jon Stokes@jon_stokes

2026.10.07 19:05

Dario & other AI insiders Scott aligns w/ are giving mid to high single- & multiple-digit p(doom) numbers, but when this question is put to superforecasters they give it 0.3% chance by 2030, 2% chance by 2050. Tetlock's own book says the further out you get the less the method actually works. So the highest-quality superforecaster number 0.3%.