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JP Insights
@jpinsights
I write about the boring stuff behind AI. Longer analysis available on my Substack. NFA
加入 September 2016
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Spent more time on $CRDO after Q1 and this is what I find most interesting. 85% FY27 growth means roughly $2.47B revenue. After Q1 and the Q2 guide, H2 still needs about $1.46B, or ~$730M per quarter. Going back through the filings gave me a better feeling on how Credo is preparing for that ramp. FY27 manufacturing commitments went from $6.4M in Aug 2025 → $147M in Jan → $333.5M by May. Inventory is now above $313M. So, Credo is already committing capital and capacity ahead of the H2 revenue. The customer side is less firm. Credo explicitly says it does not have long-term purchase commitments from customers. Optics also cannot carry FY27 alone. Using management's earlier rough 50/50 split between optical and existing copper growth, the current business may still need something around mid-40% growth while Credo builds a $600M+ optical business. So this is a rather easy question now. Can Credo convert the capacity and inventory already sitting behind the guide into ~$1.46B of H2 revenue while keeping the economics intact?
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