註冊並分享邀請連結,可獲得影片播放與邀請獎勵。

JP Insights
@jpinsights
I write about the boring stuff behind AI. Longer analysis available on my Substack. NFA
加入 September 2016
311 正在關注    36.6K 粉絲
Free posts can be just as good as paid ones if you find accounts that help you cut through the noise. I added to my $CRDO position at around $163 late last week. It’s now at $175, but still nowhere near a price where I’d even consider trimming.
顯示更多
I’ve added to my $CRDO because I think the next two quarters will make the H2 opportunity much harder to ignore. Why? Credo’s outlook for more than 85% revenue growth this fiscal year implies revenue above roughly $2.47B. Q1 delivered $479M, and Q2 guidance is $525–535M. Using the Q2 midpoint, that gives us about $1.01B in the first half. To reach 85% growth, Credo then needs roughly $1.46B in H2. About 45% more revenue than H1. That acceleration is already embedded in management’s outlook. For a sense of the quarterly progression, approximately $655M in Q3 and $806M in Q4 would get them there. These are my illustrative numbers, not quarterly guidance from Credo. And if we hang on to the Q4 figure. We’re looking at a business that just reported $479M in quarterly revenue, with an annual outlook that could support an exit quarter above $800M. That’s why I struggle with putting so much weight on whether Q1 beat expectations by enough. My investment case has been built around the larger revenue ramp still ahead, and management raised its full-year growth outlook after reporting Q1. The profitability is another reason I’m bullish. Q1 non-GAAP gross margin was 68%, with Q2 guided to 67–69%. At that level, an additional $100M in quarterly revenue produces roughly $68M in gross profit before operating expenses, assuming the margin holds. So I’m thinking about what earnings could look like as those larger revenue quarters arrive. There is considerably more earning power in an $800M quarter than a $479M quarter, even without assuming any gross margin expansion. Customer timing is the main execution risk I’m watching given how much revenue sits in H2. But my expectation is that the ramp happens, and I see room for Credo to exceed the full-year outlook. I’ve added because I want to own more of the business before those quarters arrive. By then, we’ll be debating what comes after an entirely different revenue base.
顯示更多