What’s weird is seeing takes on why things are the way they are in markets, and what that means, often with a complete absence of first principles when it comes to PMs. “Prediction market traders want…” If you assessed PMs in 2017-19 you could’ve concluded “people don’t want them.” Now it’s “people only care about price”, “they’ll only trade on…” Wait a second, half a decade ago we barely had retail scale for event contracts. We’ve had almost no time to discover what people actually want to trade, or how. Financial products don’t arrive fully formed around pre-existing preferences. People build things, experiment, firms find new ways to abstract, transfer and speculate on risk, users respond, new use cases emerge etc. Futures, options, perps etc all evolved through different paths. There isn’t one predetermined user, use case or product form. PMs are incredibly early. Treating what people trade today as some fixed expression of what they want from them seems completely backwards.