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Justin Mateen
@justinmateen
Founder of JAM Fund | Co-founder of Tinder | Seed investor in: Curative, Deel, Kalshi, Slash, Speak, Whop… and many others
加入 January 2013
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This was my 2017 $SPCX thesis. I unsuccessfully pitched it to one of the world’s most legendary hedge fund managers soon after I invested. Three key lines from it: “I believe that it can be the most valuable company in the world in 10-15 years which would mean that the return can still be 100x plus.” “I strongly believe they will be disrupting multiple multi hundred billion dollar industries.” “I look at this as a hedge against the future and that not having a piece of SpaceX is reckless.” The thesis sounded like a pipe dream. The investment wasn’t a fit for him, but writing it out strengthened my own conviction enough to double down a few days later via Gigafund, run by @LukeNosek who serves on SpaceX’s board, and @oskoui . More than two dozen friends invested alongside me. That 10-15 year window is 2027-2032. When I wrote this, no U.S. company had ever reached a $1 trillion valuation. My 100x case implied SpaceX would be worth $2 trillion+.
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Dear short shorts, A wise man who knows Elon well once told me: 1. Never short a pipe dream. 2. Never bet against Elon Musk. The obvious trade: short $SPCX into the first lockup expiration. I bet on that pipe dream 9 years ago. I own several million shares and will sell zero. This week, you may learn both lessons at once. I’d gladly lock up my shares for 9 more years, and I’m far from alone. With such a small float, it hasn’t taken much selling pressure to move the stock down. But obvious trades don’t stay easy for long. If the company keeps executing and far fewer insiders sell than expected, that dynamic can reverse very quickly. You’re betting against a founder who gets immense pleasure from proving doubters wrong and has a history of turning pipe dreams into reality. Good luck. You may need it sooner than you think.
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