Chubby♨️(@kimmonismus):The AI Futures Project now forecasts that AI capable of matching top human AI researchers will likely arrive in 2027, absent a major slowdown. We are 5 months ahead of the curve. The update follows METR’s estimate that Anthropic’s AI progress has roughly doubled in speed, with AI contributing much of the acceleration. We are even outpacing expected exponentials. 2027 will be the most crazy year of humanity.

7hours ago

The AI Futures Project now forecasts that AI capable of matching top human AI researchers will likely arrive in 2027, absent a major slowdown. We are 5 months ahead of the curve. The update follows METR’s estimate that Anthropic’s AI progress has roughly doubled in speed, with AI contributing much of the acceleration. We are even outpacing expected exponentials. 2027 will be the most crazy year of humanity.

Daniel Kokotajlo@DKokotajlo

7hours ago

Unfortunately, it seems like the intelligence explosion will be happening in 2027 after all. Most of this post analyzes the new METR report (though other sources of evidence are also important). If they’re right, that implies an AI-driven acceleration that is 5 months ahead of the AI 2027 scenario. I am scared, sad, and angry.