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尚 (shang, shang)
@lasertheend
专注于套利理财和左侧抄底 关注未来每人都需要,但是还没人意识到的机会 独立思考,不管他们成不成真,NFA
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@qinbafrank 没注意到,CME竟然跌了好夸张,通胀,商品牛市还指望着能突破一波呢
币安上买美股的手续费0.1%,太不合理了。
0.239卖了40%,still bullish on $cards 因为他们背后有严肃的存卡基础设施和进货渠道,不是链上一个团队说做就做的。
一个好赛道和一个靠谱的好团队不好找,也曾经疯狂怀疑过,还好一直在车上🙏
一鲸落,万物生 (BTC) 两鲸落,??? (BTC+ETH)
$BP 骂归骂,但是不能忽视这种非共识机会: 1. 流通量$40-50M,64% staked 7天解锁,盘面就只有$20M ,流动性很低,随便买就能拉起来。 2. Backpack的证券确实和其他的交易所不一样,甚至可以把链上的股票自动赎回成美股 3. BP昨天刚涨的时候,madlads群友骂声一片,没有人有货
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看新闻: 看基本面,找好股票:
人可以错,但是一定不能骗,不要投机,相信第一性原理,在二级市场赚钱很多都是可以通过第一性原理倒推出来的。 才听了5分钟,NDV的Jason Huang真是有东西啊,去年在吴说博客里短短22分钟就预言今年加密熊市,这次又金句频出啊。 @Rubywang 好内容👍
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码住一下
Every era has a resource so fundamental it becomes money. Bitcoin turns energy into currency. Trustless, global and censorship-resistant. AI is doing something even more powerful: it turns energy into intelligence. Deployable anywhere and useful for almost everything. But intelligence has no native financial primitive. It isn't fungible. It can't move outside the dollar system. Pearl changes that. Pearl is the first asset natively produced by AI and natively secured by AI. Every GPU cycle producing LLM tokens can simultaneously mint Pearl tokens with marginal extra electricity, zero wasted compute and one unified primitive. 2-for-1. Sitting atop one of the largest capital expenditures in history, Pearl changes the unit economics of AI. This is what sets Pearl’s breakthrough apart. Previous attempts at useful-work blockchains captured a narrow slice of compute. Pearl's addressable market is every matmul computation on earth which, at current trends, will be the majority of all compute. Bitcoin’s security is competing with AI for energy. Pearl's security scales with AI adoption. Proof of work represents humanity's demand for energy, monetized. Pearl represents humanity's demand for intelligence, monetized. Pearl is now live.
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光通信公司的远期市盈率高达 44 至 117 倍,而英伟达的市盈率仅为 26 倍,存储芯片制造商更是低至 7 倍 。这为投资者提供了一种策略组合:做多存储芯片和英伟达,做空光通信公司和 Vertiv,这种组合在 AI 资本支出无论是持续还是见顶的情况下,都具有正向预期价值
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一个好赛道和一个靠谱的好团队不好找,也曾经疯狂怀疑过,还好一直在车上🙏
1983年,北美电子游戏市场崩溃了。 市值从32亿美元暴跌至1亿——跌幅97%。媒体宣告"电子游戏已死",Atari 倒下,零售商拒绝上架游戏产品,整个行业被埋进了沙漠里。 但山内溥没有离开。 他的判断只有一句话:不是人们不爱玩游戏,是人们不爱玩烂游戏。 两年后,任天堂带着 NES 杀回北美。这次他们控制每一张卡带的质量,亲自审核每一款上架游戏。 1987年,这个被宣告死亡的产业,重新成为全球最大的娱乐市场之一。 有人说加密货币已死。 我只想问一句: 是人们不信区块链了,还是人们只是不想再被烂项目割了?
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看$ VST 4挺有意思的 1月份大家追"AI电力",220块抢着买 现在134了,没人提了 这4个月公司发生了啥: Meta签20年核电合约 升投资级 Q1利润涨5倍多 买了5500MW天然气资产 回购了60多亿股票 基本面更好,股价跌了40% 现在7倍EBITDA——普通水电煤的估值 我自己算了下三档: 熊市115,-14% 基本盘180,+34% 牛市260,+94% 熊市怎么算的: 假设FERC对data center colocation下狠手,把AWS Meta这种结构拆掉一部分 加上capex不及预期、Cogentrix整合也不顺 2027 EBITDA从指引中点的80亿掉到72亿 估值再压到7倍(纯utility底部) 减债减Cogentrix稀释后差不多就是115 关键是这个115假设的是"AI故事彻底失败+监管最差结果" 即便那样下行也只有14% 加权下来期望值大概180,30%出头 输1赢2-6,这种比例不多见 也可能我看错了
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“跌无可跌”? $KBR 是我最近在看的"隐形分拆"机会 它计划在 2027年1月 把公司一分为二: Mission Tech(政府/国防科技服务) Sustainable Technology Solutions(能源/工业技术) Q1 营收 $1.92B,因为一个已知合同收尾而下滑—— 但 Adjusted EBITDA margin 13.1%,backlog $23.2B,book-to-bill 1.1x 分拆前市场给的估值往往是打折的,因为两块业务混在一起不好定价。 分拆后两家独立公司各自吸引对口的投资者——往往会重新估值。
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当所有人都在说一个事情是阳光大道时,他已经是羊肠小道(人均面积)。不想做常人,就不要跟随常理
100% 金融虚无主义会越来越流行
Cobie predicts a massive shift in market culture over the next 3 to 5 years. He says we will see "a finance native, like, Clavicular kind of person" emerge who is "phenomenally talented in the markets." Instead of standard media, it will be a "clavicular type format" where "someone takes a bunch of positions in public and shows their life and the ups and downs of being that." If this aligns with the right conditions, we are looking at a "10X version" of the Roaring Kitty phenomenon.
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Paul Tudor Jones 最新的访谈中说,每一次的泡沫破裂背后都是因为杠杆太高了
Dario Amodei(Anthropic CEO)说要花1万亿$买算力, 很多人都在转他这个豪言壮语,但没人告诉你他后半句说了啥, 我觉得这根本不是什么雄心壮志, 更像是整个AI行业最绝望的生存宣言🤔 他原话是这么说的👇 如果2027年底营收不到一万亿, 地球上没有任何力量能阻止我破产, 有了一万亿营收,我才能买五万亿的算力。 更可怕的是他后面的补充: “我脑子里有一部分在怀疑, 增长还能不能继续保持十倍, 2027年我可能根本买不起每年一万亿的算力” 给我的感觉是像在演示一个极端脆弱的生存方程, 如果营收必须每年十倍爆炸, 那么只要差一点或者晚一年, 整个模型都得直接崩盘🤯 仔细研究了下,这就是缩放定律最残酷的经济学体现, 也就是技术可行不等于经济可行,如果现在每一代前沿模型的成本已经到了一个非常高的天文数字, 那么你必须赌指数级增长,要不然只能出局🥺 按目前的趋势, 2027年显然不是又一个普通的大模型年,大概率是整个行业的生死线, 要么成为像电力一样的通用基础设施,要么集体破产,没有中间态, 最讽刺的是很多人都把Dario的破产警示,剪成了励志金句, 用来制造FOMO,用来吹算力就是新石油, 没人愿意听那个藏在豪言背后的颤抖的声音, 感觉现在整个AI行业都在玩同一个俄罗斯轮盘赌, 所有人都必须一直扣扳机, 谁先停就谁先死, 但没人知道枪里到底有没有子弹 #AI# #Anthropic# #大模型#
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最近读到晚点的一篇《全员 token-maxxing,一场没人敢停的军备竞赛》让我有很深的感触。没错,现在ai是火,股票也涨好多,但是当所有人都在用的时候,长期看除了整体社会进步能对哪家特别的公司得到什么特殊的价值提升吗?没有人任何人拿到任何优势。
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Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts. It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created. It's easy to feel disillusioned and wish you were focusing on AI-related trading, businesses, or working at a startup in that sector. Many companies and investment firms have already begun the rotation out of Crypto. Don't let your apathy make you unproductive; it's your personal responsibility to continue learning about the world. If you feel the call of the wild, then go. For the ones brave enough to stick around, not only will the risk-reward be as asymmetric as it's been in recent history, the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it EASIER to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at Crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with a rapid repricing in Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable. For a long time in Crypto, nothing felt buyable due to an excess of capital being forced to deploy in a sector with limited opportunity. We're in a new regime now. We're reaching a similar level of apathy that I felt during 2019 and 2022. I almost quit Crypto to go back to TradFi. It's no surprise those were the years where I generated the bulk of my returns (sans Hyperliquid). Outside of trading, if you're passionate about the space, companies that are still building during this period will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable reacceleration of this industry. Working at top-tier companies in the space is more accessible than ever due to a shortage of people entering the field. Don't undervalue your time.
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加密世界降息了,u理财的诱惑越来越少,或许是另外一个角度的底部信号
rates in DeFi are too low for the level of risk $11.7B sitting in Morpho vaults today at 2-4% APY. retail is funding these markets via exchanges thinking it's a savings account. it's not. they're taking real credit risk on crypto-collateralized lending no institution accepts near risk-free rates to come on-chain not all vaults are created equal. same 2-4% yield but completely different risk profile (different curators, collateral, LLTVs). retail picks the highest number. farmers will farm back in the day >100% APYs in DeFi made sense. you were compensated for the risk you were taking. DeFi is a different animal today but vol, historical dislocations, and looping strategies on crypto collateral still demand at least 300-400 bps above risk-free. we're nowhere near that. @LucaProsperi ran the math (see below). tldr - fair value spread on ETH/BTC-collateralized lending is 250-400 bps above risk-free. observed rates are a fraction of that last cycle we saw a lot of retail pour savings into algo stablecoins promising "risk free" yield. this cycle vaults have a lot of demand but they are mispriced for the level of risk. you're trusting someone to LP into vaults and trust the manager will manage position at least private credit earned you 12-16% go read this:
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全网开始爆夸 STRC 之际,已经连续3天负溢价了。。。