I don't like or dislike $SIVE:
The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:
Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:
1. Ayar light source
2. $GFS reference design
3. $POET Optical Interposer ELS
4. $JBL 1.6T LRO pluggable module
That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.
Further highlighted by:
- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake
- index inclusions have happened
- multiple analysts now publish
But now:
You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.
I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?
The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVDA, $PLTR and early $GOOGL etc.
Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.
So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.
Another collaboration announcement like $GFS wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.
But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline.
No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc).
Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $JBL / $MRVL - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD / $MSFT / $AMZN.
And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $COHR or $MTSI or $LITE - who are known to have laser shortages.
Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.
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