Mallesh Pai(@malleshpai):🚨New Paper with @Weiye_Xi , @ciamac and @Qiaoqiao2001 Here’s two different prediction markets priced at ~6.5%: 1. Will the US confirm the existence of Aliens in 2026? 2. *that* Spurs @ Knicks Game 4, ~4th quarter. They suggest that both these events are the same probability, but intuitively these feel very different: the latter (Knicks won!) feels a lot more uncertain. But prediction markets don’t immediately give us a way to quantify it.

Mallesh Pai

@malleshpai

Forward Deployed Researcher and Recovering Economist @tempo.

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Mallesh Pai@malleshpai

2026.07.14 14:59

🚨New Paper with @Weiye_Xi , @ciamac and @Qiaoqiao2001 Here’s two different prediction markets priced at ~6.5%: 1. Will the US confirm the existence of Aliens in 2026? 2. *that* Spurs @ Knicks Game 4, ~4th quarter. They suggest that both these events are the same probability, but intuitively these feel very different: the latter (Knicks won!) feels a lot more uncertain. But prediction markets don’t immediately give us a way to quantify it.