Something crazy is happening...
With how indexes have performed amid $100 oil and rate hikes the market is maybe saying something it never has before.
Feels like investors are saying you're either in these stocks or just destined to watch your cash and bonds lose out to inflation.
If the 10-year is projecting inflation to rip, why would you want bonds that hardly outperform it? The Fed's hawkishness has done nothing to assuage these concerns because it's clear higher rates are not going to slow an economy this hot or solve a supply shock in energy. This is of course because higher rates don't end wars but also because the ROI on this technology investment is just that asymmetrical for the companies investing (a point Ackman made well).
Meanwhile this whole historical "risk-free" thing with bonds feels like it's falling apart. The U.S. Government is the least credible it's ever been. And higher borrowing costs from the Fed will make it harder to finance the growing debt due to reckless spending leading to money printing and then more inflation.
At the same time large technology companies are the most credit worthy they've ever been. Even from a fixed income POV, I'd rather own corporate debt from $GOOG, a business growing double digits with a phenomenal ROIC track record. The more capital a company like that can attract from investors who'd normally buy treasuries will lead it to then generate more return on investment and boost the stock as a result.
All of this points to equities continuing to rally. Debasement argument probably bullish for gold and BTC too.