I’ve come to the realization that it’s not worth spending any more of my time trying to farm the Polymarket airdrop. That said, the market is still pricing in some value, with $POLY TGE odds remaining relatively healthy. I wanted to share my thoughts on why that might be and what the market is pricing in. The Endgame It shouldn't come as a surprise that Polymarket and Kalshi are looking to IPO before the US elections. After 2028, they could face significant legal scrutiny, especially at the state level, given that a substantial portion of their volume comes from sports betting. The Competition With sports and esports markets accounting for an increasingly large share of volume, the recent fee increases make competition even fiercer. These markets are also the easiest to provide liquidity to. This is similar to what happened with crypto exchanges, which launched tokens and offered fee discounts to attract and retain users. It also validates the idea that a token and a stock can coexist. The Lack of Goodwill and PMF The community has been very tolerant of Polymarket's buggy codebase and reliance on a third-party oracle despite all the money they've raised. Although the team has made some significant product improvements recently, I think we're at a point where Polymarket has a goodwill problem more than a product problem. They've teased a token airdrop multiple times over the past two years and still haven't delivered. The sad reality is that some projects can afford not to deliver on their promises. Pumpfun, for example, has already generated more revenue than it raised in funding. Polymarket isn't in the same position. I'm not saying there's no product-market fit, but it isn't strong enough yet to make the business as sustainable or scalable as it needs to be. The Bailout VCs have invested over $2B in Polymarket, and the company is now valued at $20B. At some point, they'll want to realize their profits. The path forward is supposedly an IPO, but the current metrics and growth trends are nowhere near enough to justify that valuation. It's also unclear whether they can raise more money, and there's little indication that things are improving beyond the recent product fixes. The platform has generated only around $100M in cumulative net revenue. In fact, if the VCs had put the money invested in Polymarket into US Treasuries instead, they could have earned more than the platform has generated in revenue. And since the beginning of the year, Polymarket hasn't been growing anywhere near as fast as you'd expect from one of the biggest players in the prediction market space. What's Being Priced In I think the market is pricing in a bailout in the form of a token that would not only give VCs an alternative way to exit or hedge their positions before an IPO, but also give Polymarket the exponential growth it needs to get there. It's obviously much easier to sell that story when the platform is growing like crazy. A token could give Polymarket that hockey-stick growth before going public. But what would that actually look like? The Ideal Scenario This part is obviously speculative, but I'd imagine something along these lines: > The international platform is separated from the US entity and placed under a nonprofit organization. >The token is announced, followed by the airdrop. > A second points program is announced, running for a year or longer. > Revenue-funded buybacks are introduced, with no long-term commitment to them, similar to what Pumpfun has done. Just look at the TVL and open interest that perp DEXs have attracted through points programs. Something like this could easily give Polymarket the hockey-stick growth it needs. Again, they wouldn't be doing this because they care about the community. They'd be doing it to make the stock and prediction market story easier to sell, giving users something back in exchange for extracting even more value in the future. The platform's fees are already very high. Which Way, Western Man? It's clear that Polymarket either isn't ready to go public with its plans or wants to keep its options open. We've seen Shayne talk vaguely about an on-chain asset without explaining what it might look like. Is he talking about an independent token, or something pegged to the stock? All of this comes at a heavy cost though, as more and more liquidity leaves the platform every day. Token teases have reached a point where they no longer seem to help revive volume. Instead, they're damaging the platform's reputation without having any meaningful impact on volume anymore. At some point in the near future, Polymarket won't be able to kick the can down the road any longer (unlike OpenSea). And it'll become increasingly obvious whether they're ever going to launch a token.

Regarding criticism and suggestions about Binance’s security and access management, we accept them all. We have always believed that transparency builds trust. We read every comment one by one. Binance is not a perfect company, but a company that is constantly evolving. Criticism shows that people have expectations and standards for Binance, and these are sources of motivation for our growth. Binance has never shirked responsibility where problems exist. At present, as a trading platform, Binance needs to address three issues: 1）Will users’ funds be affected? Binance will bear full responsibility，this is what we should do. Legally, if the funding gap is large, one could file for bankruptcy and run away, but Binance operates in a “user-centric” way, with contractual spirit and a sense of moral responsibility. 2）How did the problem occur? Before publication, many professionals advised that it would be best not to include details, but we believe transparency creates trust. If this report is of reference value to other peers regarding the complexity of social engineering and the warning about AI permission boundaries, then the report is meaningful. 3）How can it be prevented in the future? We have already restructured security boundaries across departmental access management, security environments, updated devices, reset AI tools, and in accordance with zero-trust and least-privilege principles. A security audit will subsequently issue a report. Finally, we welcome more top AI security experts and technical talent to join Binance. You can DM me directly or apply on the Binance website for positions you are interested in. Joining Binance to verify this security system is the best way to validate it. 关于对币安的安全和权限管理的批评建议，我们都认。我们一直相信坦透明会建立信任，大家的评论都有一条一条看，币安不是完美的公司，但是一个一直在进化的公司，批评说明对币安有期望，对币安有标准，这些都是我们成长的动力源泉。 币安有问题的地方也从来没有推卸过责任。当下，币安作为交易平台需要解决三个问题： 1）用户的钱会不会受影响？币安会完全承担，这是我们应该做的。法律上资金缺口大可以申请破产跑路，但币安经营是“以用户中心”，是契约精神和大义。 2）问题是怎么发生的？发布前很多专业人士的意见是最好没有细节，但我们认为透明产生信任，如果这个报告在社会工程的复杂度，在AI权限边界的警示对其他同行有参考意义，那么这个报告就有意义。 3）以后如何杜绝？当前已经从各部门权限管理，安全环境，更新设备，重置AI工具，并遵循0信任、最小化原则重构安全边界，后续会由安全审计出具报告。 最后欢迎更多顶尖的AI安全专家和技术人才加入币安，您可以直接DM我本人，也可以在币安网站申请你感兴趣的岗位。加入币安来验证这套安全体系是最好的验证办法。

We've identified & fixed an issue impacting our international platform, Polymarket⁠.com. One of our 3rd party providers was compromised, and we have referred this to relevant law enforcement. Anyone who has been impacted will be made whole. Out of an abundance of caution, we have temporarily halted trading & are working to bring the platform back online.

Metric referrals are now live. Everyone can create their own referral link via More information about the benefit of referrals will be revealed next week.

Strategy has sold 3,588 $BTC for $216 million to fund dividends on our Digital Credit securities. As of 7/5/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $2.55 billion in our USD Reserves.