Outlier Capital(@outliercapx):My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.

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Outlier Capital@outliercapx

2026.09.20 12:00

My prediction — $AAOI 2031 market cap: $75B. From $9B today. Mgmt’s own mid-2027 run-rate: ~$471M/month of data-center optics. That’s ~$5.6B annualized before mix shifts to 1.6T and own-laser content. Demand is not the constraint. Texas InP + U.S. capacity is. If they clear 35–40% Gross Margin with vertical lasers and hold even a mid-single-digit share of 1.6T/CPO modules, $75B from here is doable on a business the Street still models as “commodity transceiver.” I’m positioned. NFA.