Tesla Robotaxi was at least ~1.81x safer than humans in April 2026. With the latest NHTSA crash report, and thanks to Robotaxi Tracker, I can finally report that Tesla Robotaxi in Austin surpassed average human safety in April 2026 (last month).
1. According to NHTSA, I estimate the human crash rate, including both reported and non-reported crashes, is ~249K miles per accident.
2. I collected all Tesla-reported mileage, as well as 7-day active fleet size from Robotaxi Tracker, and found the mileage is pretty predictable. This allows me to accurately estimate monthly Robotaxi mileage in Austin with <5% error.
3. Using the latest NHTSA crash report, I calculated the 3-month rolling crash rate, since Tesla sometimes has 0 monthly crashes. It clearly shows that in April, the 3-month rolling crash rate surpassed humans for the first time.
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