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Vijay Boyapati
@real_vijay
Tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
加入 December 2009
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For 45 years interest rates steadily declined as global bond markets believed in twin pillars of late 20th century capitalism: 1. Central banks have inflation under control 2. Moore's law and the attendant productivity boom will last forever Nation states took advantage of this conceit by ballooning their national debts with very little to show for it beyond ineffective welfare programs and completely needless wars. Now the time of reckoning has come. Even at rock bottom interest rates interest on the US debt (as an example) is already a meaningful chunk of the US budget (equivalent to all defense spending). As interest rates rise and more debt needs to be rolled, along with brand new issuance, the cost of borrowing is going to skyrocket for nations. This then flows on to all other debt markets such as the housing market which further suffocates national economies. Right now governments are trying to shuffle the deck and pretend a major bond crisis isn't on their shores, but this can only last so long. Exacerbating all of this is the global political climate shifting dangerously toward more socialistic policies across the West. The only potential savior to this looming crisis is an enormous and imminent productivity boom from AI. This cannot be ruled out, but even if productivity is improving rapidly in bits (such as coding) it will flow into physical industries much more slowly. It is unlikely to save us from the bond crisis to come. Whatever happens, we're likely in for a period of massive currency uncertainty and volatility. Exactly what Bitcoin was made for.
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