I think Lighter has a clearer path into the US than Hyperliquid.
To reach US retail an onchain perps venue has to either:
A) register to become a CFTC-licensed entity
B) Qualify for some DeFi exemption
Lighter is obv pursuing A, as it has a US C-corp that issues the token and operates the protocol, an ongoing CFTC license application, and a founder on the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee. This gives it an accountable legal entity on top of a relationship with the CFTC. The chain runs on a single sequencer so B is not really an option.
Hyperliquid is kind of stuck here. It doesn't have an accountable US legal entity to license to so hard to do A and it likely isn't decentralized enough today for B (closed source, historically concentrated stake). Hyperliquid can neither cleanly register nor is it likely exempt.
While the HPC's ability to make progress on B is a factor here i don't want to discount, I feel like the registration route materializes first, especially with the probable chance we don't get Clarity.
Additionally, despite the personal connection between the two Vlads, I'd guess a real part of Robinhood's selection criteria was Lighter's ability to compliantly offer to US retail down the line. Especially since Robinhood is a regulated US public company whose whole business is US retail.
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