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Robert Friedland
@robert_ivanhoe
Founder @IvanhoeMines_ | @IvanhoeElectric | Everything affects everything, everywhere, all the time 🌎
加入 August 2022
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I like this chart by Chris Lafemina at @Jefferies. Chris clearly highlights the challenge of bringing new large-scale copper projects online. Even world‑class assets, operated by experienced management teams, have struggled in recent years to achieve design capacity on schedule. Collectively, the projects in his analysis delivered cumulative copper production 30% BELOW TARGET (36% below target if you exclude Kamoa-Kakula, which was delivered above target, as shown in the table). Copper supply forecasts for the next wave of new copper projects are clearly overestimated. As an industry, we will increase hurdle rates to fully account for the many construction and ramp-up risks, which increase exponentially as projects get larger. As Chris points out, this implies projects will require a higher incentive price to be built... which will lead to higher copper prices. Risk-averse management teams may instead prefer to buy, rather than build, production capacity... but this doesn't solve our lack of supply growth problem... which will lead to higher copper prices. @kamoa_copper_sa @IvanhoeMines_ @ivanhoeelectric
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