Rolf Bulk(@rolfbulk):$ASML’s edge in lithography is underestimated. Worth keeping in mind that ASML already has a competitor in immersion DUV: Nikon, one of the original lithography equipment vendors. Despite that competition, ASML’s market share in DUV immersion has hovered around 95–98% for years. The combination of 1) 1.5–2nm overlay accuracy and 2) consistently high throughput of >300 wafers per hour can only be achieved through decades of iterative hardware innovation and software tuning. You cannot short-circuit that development time easily. Unlikely we will see Chinese tools move beyond the R&D phase over the next few years.

2026.07.28 02:29

$ASML’s edge in lithography is underestimated. Worth keeping in mind that ASML already has a competitor in immersion DUV: Nikon, one of the original lithography equipment vendors. Despite that competition, ASML’s market share in DUV immersion has hovered around 95–98% for years. The combination of 1) 1.5–2nm overlay accuracy and 2) consistently high throughput of >300 wafers per hour can only be achieved through decades of iterative hardware innovation and software tuning. You cannot short-circuit that development time easily. Unlikely we will see Chinese tools move beyond the R&D phase over the next few years.