Ryan Dahl(@rough__sea):10% chance of extinction indeed is ridiculous here are my priors for various doom scenarios in next 10 years p(extinction) = 0.0001 p(terminator war) = 0.0002 p(super covid) = 0.001 p(cyber attack that leads to >1k deaths) = .5 p(autonomous weapons used in war) = .9 p(>25% of white collar work disappears) = .9 p(mass fraud) = .99

Ryan Dahl

@rough__sea

cofounder of @deno_land, creator of @nodejs. often goes by ry.

加入 February 2015

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Ryan Dahl@rough__sea

2026.09.14 01:15

10% chance of extinction indeed is ridiculous here are my priors for various doom scenarios in next 10 years p(extinction) = 0.0001 p(terminator war) = 0.0002 p(super covid) = 0.001 p(cyber attack that leads to >1k deaths) = .5 p(autonomous weapons used in war) = .9 p(>25% of white collar work disappears) = .9 p(mass fraud) = .99