PUMP Update:
While PUMP continues to grind higher, two headwinds have capped further upside: 1) risk-on capital rotating into the privacy/AI narrative, and 2) competition risk from Stonk, which we flagged in our original report and has now materialised.
Despite an initially positive v2 launch of custom quote assets, Stonk has regained dominance in that segment. Trailing 24H:
1. Custom-quote bonding-curve volume: Pump 17% ($13.3M) vs Stonk 83% ($65.2M)
2. All quote assets incl. SOL/USDC: Pump 63.5% ($117.6M) vs Stonk 36.5% ($67.7M)
3. Growth vs previous 24H: Pump +12.2%, Stonk +54.5%
Losing these volumes cost Pump roughly 70% in potential revenue, a hypothetical $19M per week. Pump has also failed to launch on Robinhood Chain. And, while RH volumes have fallen, failure to act is again indicative of the Pump team not responding aggressively enough to defend its monopoly.
That said, the launchpad sector continues to perform well. Pump still leads all launchpads in revenue ($11.6M over September 15-21) and ranks second among protocols excluding stablecoin issuers (behind Hyperliquid, $16.6M). Our muted-selling thesis also keeps playing out: September-to-date, tracked distribution-linked wallets sold or sent to exchanges 1.51B PUMP ($6.31M) versus 3.59B PUMP ($14.84M) in buybacks, 2.4x the identified outflows.
Given this, still bullish on Pump, however, as Stonk continues to show resilience, it is worth considering adding Stonk alongside Pump to better express a long view on launchpads: it broadens exposure, hedges Pump's execution risk, and likely offers more asymmetric upside given even lower multiples and potential catalysts such as CEX listings.
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