個人認為今年5-6月有機會是老馬炒作太空概念股的時間點。畢竟要配合6月的space x巨型ipo了。 3-5% 極低比例籌碼的ipo , 1.75-2t 估值的人類終極夢想。 人類去宇宙上火星，搭配宇宙資料中心概念。最美麗的夢。 搭配飛機上都能上網的星鏈。確確實實的科幻小說成真劇情。沒有比這性感的故事了。 ———— 另一方面，最高的ipo估值套最多的人 （nvda 是以6億估值上市的，散戶才有所謂的百倍、千倍的機會），1.7-2t 估值的ipo 散戶能有什麼機會？ 而最低的比例ipo 控最完美的初期盤 。 看看六月space x ipo 走勢能否驗證猜想了。

As two of the largest forces in equity markets -- growing index ownership and increasing amounts of capital controlled by extremely short-term-oriented, leveraged, volatility-intolerant investors -- converge, we have found occasional opportunities to acquire some of the most dominant long-term compounding franchises at attractive valuations. For example, we acquired Alphabet $GOOG when the stock declined substantially on the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, Amazon $AMZN in the weeks following Liberation Day, and $META more recently on the market's response to the company's unexpectedly large cap ex guidance and expenditures. In our 13F which we will file later today, we will disclose a new position in Microsoft, a company we have followed for many years now offered at a highly compelling valuation. While $PSUS will not be filing a 13F tomorrow, it has also recently made $MFST a core holding. Microsoft operates two of the most valuable franchises in enterprise technology, which account for approximately 70% of the company's overall profits: M365 and Azure. M365, the company's productivity suite, is the dominant operating platform for knowledge work, with over 450 million workers using Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, and Teams on a daily basis. Azure is the world's second-largest hyperscaler cloud platform and, like AWS in our Amazon investment, is a direct beneficiary of the multi-decade migration of enterprise IT workloads to the cloud, which is now further accelerated by surging demand for AI inference workloads. Both M365 and Azure are underpinned by Microsoft's unparalleled enterprise distribution and the security, compliance, and identity infrastructure it has built and refined over decades. Beyond these core franchises, Microsoft also owns a portfolio of other leading businesses, including LinkedIn (the world's largest professional network with 1.3 billion members), its gaming platform (Xbox and Activision Blizzard), and search and news advertising (Bing and the Edge browser). We began building our position in MSFT in February following a meaningful share price decline after the company reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results. We were able to establish our position at a valuation of 21 times forward earnings, broadly in line with the market multiple and well below Microsoft's trading average over the last few years. Notably, MSFT's headline multiple does not reflect the value of Microsoft's approximately 27% economic interest in OpenAI, which would represent approximately $200 billion, or 7% of Microsoft's market capitalization, at OpenAI's most recent funding round valuation. We believe Microsoft's recent share price decline has been principally driven by investor concerns around two key issues: i) the competitive positioning of M365 against increasingly capable AI lab offerings (notably Anthropic's Claude Cowork), and ii) the durability of Azure's growth, especially in light of Microsoft's evolving relationship with OpenAI. In our view, investors underestimate the resilience of the M365 franchise given its deeply embedded role across enterprises and highly attractive price-value proposition. Unlike point software solutions, which may be vulnerable to disintermediation by better-performing AI alternatives, M365 is tightly integrated into the daily workflow of nearly every large enterprise and is supported by Microsoft's identity, security, compliance, and data governance infrastructure, which would be nearly impossible to replicate. Attractive bundle economics further reinforce Microsoft's advantage, with monthly average revenue per user on the M365 suite at approximately $20, less than half of what customers would pay to purchase the underlying applications individually from different vendors. Moreover, we are encouraged to see Microsoft prioritizing its R&D efforts and investment in Copilot, its own AI agent embedded across M365, with direct involvement from CEO Satya Nadella. We believe these efforts will translate into improved product velocity and greater customer adoption over time. Alongside Copilot's rollout, the company has also begun shifting its pricing model from pure per-seat licensing to a hybrid model of seats plus metered consumption, which helps expand the company’s revenue opportunity as AI agents drive incremental usage that a seat-only structure would not capture. These initiatives should help sustain M365’s strong underlying growth momentum, which was already evident in the business unit’s 15% revenue growth (in constant currency) last quarter. We believe concerns regarding Azure's growth trajectory are similarly misplaced, particularly in light of the franchise's exceptional recent performance. Azure revenue grew 39% in constant currency last quarter, with company guiding to modest acceleration through the second half of the year. We view Microsoft's recent decision to restructure its OpenAI partnership not as a concession but as part of a deliberate pivot toward a more open, multi-model architecture that better serves enterprise customers, who increasingly seek optionality across model providers. Microsoft recently disclosed that over 10,000 enterprise customers have used more than one model on Azure Foundry, the company’s modular AI model marketplace. This model-agnostic approach also strengthens Copilot, which can auto-route queries across multiple models to deliver the optimal output for a given task. To support Azure's rapid growth amid persistent supply constraints, Microsoft has raised its calendar year 2026 capex budget to approximately $190 billion. Consistent with what we have observed at hyperscaler peers Amazon and Google, we view this spend as growth capex that should drive future revenue generation. This is particularly true for Microsoft, given that roughly two-thirds of its capex budget is allocated to server and networking equipment that correlates directly with near-term revenue. Like our purchases of $GOOG, $AMZN, and $META, we believe that $MSFT offers analogous and compelling long-term value at today's valuation.

You invested $100K via a 3-layer Anthropic SPV at $380B valuation. Third layer takes 15% management/set up fees and no carry Second layer takes 10/20 First layer takes 10/20 So your real investment is 100*0.85*0.9*0.9=$68.85K. Given nobody scammed anyone in the matryoshka An exit at $1.4T IPO gets you a MOIC of ~2.8x after dilution. That’s $192K on the first layer. The first layer takes 20% carry, you have $167K left The second layer takes 20% carry ($36.4k), you have $130.6k left So you have made a $30K return on a $100K investment in a year. So layered SPV investment got you a 68% Anthropic exposure. Buying Google stock gets you 14% and Amazon - 18%. AND a multiple on all the money Anthropic spends on compute (most of their money). AND exposure to a money-printing business with a strong AI component that rivals Anthropic. AND no scam risk. While the 32% lost in SPV fees just fund someone’s coke habit in Miami. Same $100K put in AMZN and GOOG over the same time period would also get you the 30% return. You’re welcome.

🏆 The Top 5 finalists of the AI Sprint are officially here. (In alphabetical order, not final ranking) • 4lpha AI @4lpha_agent • Build4 @build4ai • Clawdyland @clawdyland • ClipX @ClipX0_ • elizaOK @elizaok_bsc From 196 BUIDLs to the final 5 — thank you to every builder who participated in this sprint 🤍 As a reminder, final results are determined based on combined judge scoring + community voting, with all non-compliant votes removed during the review process to ensure fairness and accuracy. Final rankings and 5 community engagement awards will be revealed on Demo Day. 🕛 13 May, 12PM (UTC+8) Stay tuned 👀

Defensive stocks have never been this disliked: The healthcare sector now accounts for just 8.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap, the lowest percentage since 1994. Their weight has fallen by -50% since the 2022 bear market. By comparison, healthcare represented ~9.0% of the index’s value at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. Furthermore, consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities collectively now account for just ~15% of the S&P 500’s market cap, the lowest since at least the 1970s. Their weighting has dropped -12 percentage points since 2022, marking an even bigger drop than during the Dot-Com run. Tech stocks have never been bigger.

LARRY FINK JUST PREDICTED A NEW ASSET CLASS The BlackRock $BLK CEO laid out where he sees the bottleneck of the AI buildout at the Milken Institute. His framing of the problem: "The United States is short power, short compute, short chips. There are going to be shortages in all three. We just don't have enough compute power right now." His prediction for what comes next: "I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute." Compute futures do not exist as a standardized tradable contract today. Fink is calling out the emergence of one.

SpaceX IPO：Musk 與內部人士鞏固投票控制權 雙重股權結構（Dual-Class Structure） SpaceX 計畫在 IPO 後透過超級投票股（super-voting shares）鞏固 Musk 的控制權。 根據 Reuters 取得的招股書摘要，採用雙重股權結構： Class B 股每股擁有 10 票，集中於 Musk 及少數內部人士手中； 而賣給公眾投資人的 Class A 股每股只有 1 票。 結果是 Musk 持有約 42% 的股權，但透過超級投票股掌控約 79% 的投票權。 IPO 規模與目標 SpaceX 目標上市估值約 1.75 兆美元，募資 750 億美元，若成功將成為史上最大 IPO。 Musk 的角色與薪酬 IPO 完成後，Musk 將繼續擔任 CEO、CTO，並出任 9 人董事會主席。雖然他去年薪資僅 54,080 美元，但上市後將透過股權獲益數十億美元。 對公眾股東的限制 招股書中也列出了限制股東影響力的條款，包括強制仲裁、限制法律訴訟場所等，公眾股東實際上無法影響公司策略方向。 SpaceX + xAI 合併的新故事 值得注意的是，SpaceX 在 2026 年 2 月以全股票交易收購了 Musk 的 AI 新創 xAI（X 的母公司），合併實體估值達 1.25 兆美元。這使 SpaceX 的 IPO 敘事從純粹的火箭/衛星公司，擴展為同時包含 AI 基礎設施的投資標的。 ------------------------------ 比較特別的,大概就是TGE 目前S1 還沒公佈但大概率是3-5% , 歷史最大的IPO 搭配極低的初始釋放! Nasdaq 已移除 10% 流通股的門檻要求，並新增「快速納入」機制——若公司市值排進指數前 40 大，可在 IPO 後 15 個交易日內被納入。所有變更從 5 月 1 日起生效。 SpaceX 估值 1.75 兆美元，輕鬆進前 40，這條規則幾乎就是為它量身定做的。 目前預測市場評估該公司在 2026 年 6 月 30 日前完成 IPO 的機率高達 74.5%，市場共識估值落在 1.5 兆至 2.5 兆美元之間 承銷商為美國銀行、高盛、摩根大通與摩根士丹利。 關於估值的三點觀察 第一，2 兆美元即便放在 AI 時代也是極端的。 以目標估值計算，SpaceX 185 億美元的年收入對應市銷率（P/S）為 108 倍。 相比之下，Nvidia 在 2024 年 AI 熱潮巔峰時的市銷率約為 40 倍。 SpaceX 的 IPO 市銷率將是 Nvidia 巔峰值的近 3 倍。Meta IPO 時的市銷率約 30 倍，而且Spacex仍持續虧損。 第二:最美的故事, 發射業務（獵鷹 9 號、獵鷹重型、星艦）：全球主導地位。 Starlink：約 110 億美元年收入，成長快速。 xAI（已併入 SpaceX）：原本獨立運營的 AI 業務。 國防合約：NASA、美國國防部、盟國政府。 軌道數據中心：尚在畫餅階段，但獲得機構認可的聲音越來越多。發射能力＋衛星基礎建設＋AI＋國防的整合故事，目前沒有其他公司能複製。 以極端估值上市的 IPO，爽到的是：早期投資人、員工與 IPO 前的股東。這些都是退出事件。IPO讓所有散戶接盤了! 但極低的初始釋放, 極高可能拉高前幾天的fomo情緒!!但類似的大型IPO 過去情形: 四個最具代表性的大型IPO規律： 首週走勢：兩種極端 Alibaba 首日開盤 $92.70，漲幅超過 35%，首週一度觸及 $120（+76%） Facebook 則相反——首週收在 $31.91，比 IPO 價低了 16% Google 和 Saudi Aramco 首週溫和上漲 18%～19% 一年後：幾乎全跌 , 甚至腰斬!! 而且Space X 前期獲利盤太多,有強大的解鎖壓力!!估計腰斬也是差不多的!!