Morgan Stanley expects niche-memory pricing power to weaken into 2028. Its revised model puts DDR4 supply 1% above demand that year.
The bank has shifted about 5GW of expected US data-center additions from 2028 to 2029, roughly 20% of its previous estimate for US additions in 2028. That pushes some expected enterprise demand further out.
Consumer demand is also weakening. Morgan Stanley points to PC procurement brought forward into the first three quarters of 2026, followed by a deeper correction in Q4. Earlier orders may have overstated underlying consumption.
Niche-memory suppliers benefited from having fewer fixed-price long-term agreements because they could raise prices faster as shortages worsened. Those arrangements also provide less protection when customers start resisting further increases.
The bank still models shortages in 2028 for SLC NAND, MLC NAND and NOR, at 3%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Its concern is that smaller shortages will make additional price increases harder to sustain.
This call covers DDR3/4, NOR and SLC/MLC NAND, excluding mainstream DDR5 and TLC/QLC NAND.
For Winbond (2344 TT), Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 EPS forecast by 8%, while cutting 2027 and 2028 estimates by 9% and 22%.
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