i broke down sports arbitrage.
i make $200-500 a day doing this.
lots of platforms out there: prediction markets and sportsbooks.
point1: each one has hundreds of matches.
point2: every match has several outcomes.
point3: the odds aren't synced.
the basic principle:
first figure out how odds work. say you put $100 on an outcome at 1.95 odds. you get $195 back.
everyone sees that part.
but there's a probability hidden in it - the chance the platform gives that outcome.
the formula:
chance = 1/odds
so at 1.95 odds the sportsbook gives that outcome 1/1.95 = ~51%
on prediction markets you don't need this math. the share price already is the chance the market set.
how do you find a sports arb?
take the chances (from the formula above) for every outcome of the match and add them up.
over 100%: no arb, that's the platform's margin
under 100%: there's an arb, the gap is your profit
example:
bertimon to win on duel at 3.30 -> 1/3.30 = 30%
kshitij to win on Polymarket at 61c, 62% with fees
30% + 62% = 92%
that's under 100%
so you make 8% ROI in either outcome.
sports markets have a lot of liquidity.
right now it's the truest edge in arb, and anyone can do it.
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