UBS CPI take:
"Warsh painted himself in a corner here. Well, we've gotten the hard language tough guy speech at Jackson Hole. His remarks were prepared and his messaging was intentional. Now, we've gotten the data - labor market print more robust, inflation still supported. September FOMC pricing goes to just under 23bp immediately, so the market is pretty much fully expecting a hike to come. At this point, it would be a massive blow to credibility if they fumble the football on following through with the adjustment, but the market seems to have been correct to lean into this data with a long USD gamma bias."
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