【Bloomberg Asia Centric Podcast】 China has long relied on massive infrastructure spending and an unstoppable export engine, leading to a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year. However, this investment-heavy strategy is testing its limits as global trading partners increasingly push back, making Beijing's transition toward a consumption-based economy more critical than ever. But how achievable is this transition, and how long will it take? Hao Hong, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Lotus Asset Management, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to weigh in. He also breaks down the current regime shift in raw materials, explaining why the global economy is entering a new commodity supercycle driven by Western supply chain investments, AI infrastructure demands and a decade of severe industry underinvestment. 长期以来，中国去年创纪录的人类历史上最大的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。然而，随着全球贸易摩擦升温，之前以投资为重的战略正在考验其极限，向以消费为基础的经济的转型比以往任何时候都更加重要。但这种转型何时实现？ 我还讨论了当前原材料行业的模式转变，解释了为什么全球经济正在进入由供应链投重构、人工智能基础设施需求和十年严重的大宗商品原材料行业投资不足而驱动的大宗商品超级周期。 我还讨论了从一个“全球最受关注之一的经济学家”（彭博社主持人原话）到“一个成功的对冲基金经理”（彭博社主持人原话）的转变。

Who, in their wildest delusion, is trying to weaponize 'overcapacity' — while the 'China Dividend' is actually powering the world? 谁在妄言“产能过剩”？“中国红利”正在驱动全球！ Recently, the phrase "China's overcapacity" has been appearing with striking frequency. In North America and Europe, it comes up in think tank reports, trade hearing testimonies, and political speeches — all in remarkably uniform tone. But interestingly, the louder the outcry, the more the actual market moves in the opposite direction. This summer, European consumers rushed to buy Chinese air conditioners — in the first half of this year, China's air conditioner exports to the EU surged 43.2% year-on-year, hitting a record high. Meanwhile, developers worldwide are flocking to Chinese large-language models — on OpenRouter, a multi-model aggregation platform, all top-five models by weekly calls come from Chinese companies. One vote is cast with wallets; the other, with code. If there really were "overcapacity," why would the market still be scrambling for these products? The so-called "China overcapacity" is, in the final analysis, a false proposition that cannot withstand market scrutiny. Recently, China's Ministry of Commerce released a 12,000-word position paper titled "The So-Called 'Overcapacity' Issue: China's Position," which gets to the root of the "overcapacity" narrative. The document systematically responds to relevant international discussions and firmly pushes back against the erroneous argument that "Chinese subsidies cause overcapacity." One sentence in the paper cuts straight to the heart: "A large export volume and a trade surplus of a country are the inevitable outcome of the international division of labor in the era of economic globalization." The weight of this statement becomes particularly clear when viewed against the broader coordinates of global economic development. In psychology, there is a concept called "attribution theory": people tend to make "internal attributions" for their successes — crediting their own efforts — but lean toward "external attributions" when facing problems, shifting blame to outside factors. This tendency is especially pronounced among trade protectionists. When their industries fail to keep pace with the times, fall behind, or suffer from domestic hollowing-out, they point fingers outward and blame China. When 80% of U.S. chips are exported and two-thirds of Boeing aircraft are sold overseas, that is touted as industrial strength. When the EU runs hundreds of billions of dollars in trade surpluses year after year in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, that is called normal international trade. Yet when China exports a lot, why is that suddenly "overcapacity"? Why is that "dumping at low prices"? Different yardsticks yield different conclusions — this is double standards in action. What is more telling is that by now, the "overcapacity" hype has long ceased to be a purely economic issue; it has been fully reduced to a tool of geopolitical rivalry in the West. The U.S. enacted the Inflation Reduction Act, doubling down on exclusionary local protectionism; the EU introduced the Industrial Accelerator Act, directly tying subsidies to local production. They pay lip service to fair competition, but in reality, they are erecting targeted trade barriers — a classic case of saying one thing and doing another. No matter whether the trade protectionists in North America and Europe are genuinely misguided or willfully obtuse, China's attitude remains clear and steadfast: we openly embrace healthy global market competition, but we will never allow normal commercial rivalry to be deliberately escalated and twisted into geopolitical confrontation. If we cut through the fog of rhetoric and take an honest look at the reality of international trade, we will see that the sustained growth of China's exports is rooted in the genuine global demand for green transition and industrial upgrading. Take the new energy sector as an example: Chinese photovoltaic modules now hold over 90% of the global market share, and Chinese power batteries account for more than 70% of global shipments. This is not ineffective excess capacity piling up in the domestic market; rather, it is the large-scale industrial advantages of China precisely matching the urgent global need for green transformation. More importantly, the global demand for new energy is far from peaking. The International Energy Agency projects that from 2025 to 2030, global installed renewable energy capacity will double, with nearly 80% of that growth coming from solar photovoltaic. By 2030, annual global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach ten times the 2023 level. Therefore, China's industrial expansion overseas has never been a "market shock" — it is a development dividend that benefits the entire world. The numbers speak for themselves: over the past decade and more, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained steady at around 30%. China has been the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries. It has implemented zero-tariff treatment for 63 countries and is the world's first major economy to offer zero-tariff coverage for all African countries that have diplomatic relations with it, as well as for all least-developed countries that have diplomatic ties with it. China is the only country in the world that hosts an International Import Expo, which has been successfully held for eight sessions, with cumulative intended transaction volume exceeding $580 billion. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's cumulative imports surpassed $90 trillion. The trade surplus may stay in China, but the industrial dividends, jobs, and development opportunities have genuinely benefited the entire world. Trade barriers may block Chinese products, but they cannot stop the advance of technological progress, the momentum of industrial rise, or the market's choice as expressed through its own votes: China is not only an increasingly robust "world factory" but also a vibrant "world market." China's modern industrial development is not "China Shock 2.0" for the world — it is "China Opportunity 2.0." 最近，"中国产能过剩"这六个字，出现的频率有点高。在北美与欧洲，智库提，贸易听证会提，政客演讲也提，调子出奇地一致。但有意思的是，嘴上喊得越凶，真实的市场，越是朝着相反的方向走。 今年夏天，欧洲的消费者争相抢购中国空调 —— 上半年中国对欧盟空调出口额同比暴涨 43.2%，创下历史新高。全球的开发者追捧中国的大模型 —— 多模型聚合平台 OpenRouter 的周度调用量榜单上，排名前五的产品全部来自中国企业。一个用钱包投票，一个用代码投票。 如果真的"过剩"，市场为什么还在抢？所谓"中国产能过剩"，说到底，是个经不住市场检验的伪命题。 最近，中国商务部发布了一份1.2万字的立场文件——《关于所谓"产能过剩"问题的中方立场》，一口气把“产能过剩论”的根给刨了。这份文件系统回应了国际上的相关讨论，正面回击了"中国补贴造成产能过剩"的错误论调。 文件里有一句话，直击要害："一个国家出口规模大、存在贸易顺差，是经济全球化下国际产业分工造就的必然结果。"这句话的分量，放在全球经济发展的坐标系里看，会格外清楚。心理学有个“归因理论”：人们看待成绩时喜欢“内部归因”，认为是自己努力的结果；面对问题时则倾向“外部归因”，把矛盾归咎于外部因素。在贸易保护主义者身上，这种现象尤其明显。一些国家的产业发展跟不上时代了，落伍被淘汰了，或者是国内产业空心化了，就把锅往外甩，说是中国的问题。 美国芯片80%用于出口，波音飞机三分之二销往海外被称作产业优势；欧盟汽车、医药、化妆品常年保持数百亿贸易顺差被叫做正常国际贸易。同样是出口多，到了中国这里，怎么就成了"产能过剩"？怎么就成了"低价倾销"？标准不同，结论当然不同，这就是双重标准。 更值得深思的是，炒到现在，"产能过剩"早就不单纯是一个经济问题了，它已经彻底沦为西方地缘博弈的工具。美国出台《通胀削减法案》，大搞本土排他性保护；欧盟推出《工业加速器法案》，把补贴和本地生产直接绑定。嘴上标榜的是公平竞争，实际构筑的却是针对性的贸易壁垒，典型的“说一套，做一套”。 不管北美与欧洲的贸易保护主义者是真糊涂还是装糊涂，中国的态度始终清晰而坚定：我们坦然接受全球良性市场竞争，但绝不允许正常的商业竞争被刻意升级、扭曲成地缘政治对抗。 拨开舆论的迷雾，正视国际贸易的现实就会发现，中国出口的持续增长，根源在于全球绿色转型和产业升级的真实刚需。以新能源产业为例，中国光伏组件全球市场占有率超过 90%，动力电池全球出货量突破 70%。这不是国内市场积压的无效过剩，而是中国产业的规模化优势，精准匹配了全球绿色转型的迫切需求。更关键的是，全球新能源市场的需求，远远没有触顶。国际能源署预测，2025年到2030年，全球可再生能源装机总量将翻一番，其中近80%的增量来自太阳能光伏；到2030年，全球新能源汽车的年销量，将达到2023年的十倍。所以，中国产业出海从来不是什么 "市场冲击"，而是普惠全球的发展红利。 数据就摆在那里：过去十多年，中国对世界经济增长的贡献率常年稳定在30%左右。中国进口规模连续17年居全球第二，是近80个国家的主要出口目的地；对63个国家实施零关税，是全球首个对所有非洲建交国和所有建交的最不发达国家实现全覆盖零关税的主要经济体；中国是全球唯一举办国际进口博览会的国家，已成功举办8届，累计意向成交额超5800亿美元；“十四五”时期累计进口规模超90万亿元…… 贸易顺差留在中国，但产业红利、就业岗位、发展机遇，实实在在惠及了全世界。贸易壁垒，可以挡住中国的产品，却挡不住技术进步的脚步，挡不住产业崛起的大势，更挡不住市场用脚投票的选择：中国不仅是日益强大的“世界工厂”，更是活力旺盛的“世界市场”。中国现代化产业发展对世界不是“中国冲击2.0”，而是“中国机遇2.0”。 #China# #Jiangxi# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

#中国智造惠全球# #广交会# #CIEF# #China# #世界经济看中国# #中国进出口商品交易会# On October 15, the 140th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) opened to the public. Merchants from across the globe gathered for this 70th anniversary of China’s No.1 exhibition. President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China sent a congratulatory message, which has resonated strongly among Chinese and foreign business participants. Xi Jinping noted: “Over the 70 years since its founding, the Canton Fair has played an important role in boosting trade between China and the rest of the world. It has become an effective platform for China to advance high-level opening-up and foster an open world economy. Under the new circumstances, China stands ready to work with all countries to uphold the multilateral trading system, keep global industrial and supply chains stable and unimpeded, expand space for mutually beneficial international economic and trade cooperation, advance inclusive and accessible economic globalization, and continuously inject fresh impetus into world development and prosperity.” 10月15日，第140届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）正式开展，万商齐聚，共赴这场“中国第一展”的七十年之约。中国国家主席习近平发来贺信，在参会的国内外客商中引发强烈反响。习近平说：“广交会创办70年来，在促进中外贸易往来方面发挥了重要作用，已成为中国扩大高水平对外开放、推动建设开放型世界经济的有效平台。新形势下，中国愿同世界各国携起手来，共同维护多边贸易体制，保障全球产业链供应链稳定畅通，拓展国际经贸互利合作空间，推进普惠包容的经济全球化，为世界发展繁荣持续注入新动力。”

#数说广交会# The 140th Canton Fair：A total of 70 credential service points with 628 service windows are arranged at airports, high-speed railway stations, the exhibition venue and designated hotels. Overseas buyers can obtain their badges within 30 seconds after passport verification. 第140届广交会：在机场高铁站、展馆及指定酒店设置70个办证点628个办证窗口，境外采购商持护照核验后30秒即可取证。 #中国智造惠全球# #第140届广交会# #CIEF# #China# #世界经济看中国# #中国进出口商品交易会#

#数说广交会# The 140th Canton Fair：Over 50 innovative measures are rolled out in smart applications and supporting trade services to offer full-process services for exhibitors and buyers and improve the overall efficiency of supplier-buyer matchmaking. 第140届广交会：在智慧应用、配套贸易服务等方面推出超50项创新举措，为参展客商提供全流程服务，提升供采对接整体效能。 #中国智造惠全球# #第140届广交会# #CIEF# #China# #世界经济看中国# #中国进出口商品交易会#

#数说广交会# The 140th Canton Fair：Among Phase 1 exhibitors, more than 11,000 are high-tech enterprises, specialized, sophisticated, unique and innovative firms, and single-product champion enterprises. 第140届广交会：第一期参展企业中，高新技术、专精特新、单项冠军等优质企业超过1.1万家。 #中国智造惠全球# #第140届广交会# #CIEF# #China# #世界经济看中国# #中国进出口商品交易会#

#数说广交会# The 140th Canton Fair：Over 12,000 exhibitors take part in Phase 1, showcasing cutting-edge achievements across 19 exhibition zones in five major sectors: electronics and home appliances, industrial automation, lighting and electrical equipment, hardware tools, new energy vehicles and smart mobility. 第140届广交会：第一期参展企业超1.2万家，集中展示电子家电、工业自动化、照明电气、五金工具、新能源汽车及智慧出行等5大板块19个展区前沿成果。 #中国智造惠全球# #第140届广交会# #CIEF# #China# #世界经济看中国# #中国进出口商品交易会#

【Monthly Market Strategy with Julius Bär】With Korean semiconductor stocks down nearly 50% from their June peak, has the AI correction finally run its course? Where could the next leg of the AI rally come from, and how are China’s cheaper AI models — including DeepSeek’s rumoured new release — reshaping the competitive landscape? 韩国半导体股自6月高位以来已回落近50%，AI板块回调是否已接近尾声？下一轮行情将由哪些领域推动？与此同时，低成本AI模型在中国持续发展，又将为全球AI的竞争格局带来什么变化？ 除AI主题外，市场亦聚焦价值股回归、中国经济增长预期、香港交易所推出五年期中国国债期货，以及黄金和白银强劲反弹等重要议题。 本期《市场透视》播客于2026年8月11日录制 ***2026.08.11录制。英文版并非中文版的英文翻译，有更多的细节讨论*** 节目播客链接：

The 1:5,000,000-scale Lunar Geological Map, compiled by Chinese research teams, has been officially completed. It precisely marks 13,519 impact craters, 81 impact basins, 14 types of geological structures and 17 rock categories. Following the world’s first 1:2,500,000 global full-moon geological map released by China in 2024, this work represents another systematic renewal of humanity’s understanding of lunar geological evolution. 由中国科研团队编制的1∶500万《月球地质图》正式完成，精准标注了13519个撞击坑、81个撞击盆地、14类构造、17种岩石类型。这是继2024年中国发布全球首张1∶250万全月地质图后，对月球地质演化认知的又一次系统性重塑。 #China# #Jiangxi# #JiangxiEconomy# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#

#数据看中国# China’s total goods import and export volume in the first three quarters of this year amounted to 39.94 trillion yuan, growing by 18.8% year-on-year. The robust growth momentum has injected strong impetus into global economic and trade expansion. By quarter, imports and exports grew by 15.3% year-on-year in Q1, 18.3% in Q2, and accelerated further to 22.3% in Q3. On a monthly basis, double-digit growth was maintained for six consecutive months. In September, imports and exports reached 5.16 trillion yuan, exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%. 今年前三季度，中国货物贸易进出口39.94万亿元，同比增长18.8%，增长势头强劲，为全球经贸增长注入强大动能。其中，一季度进出口同比增长15.3%，二季度增长18.3%，三季度增速进一步提升到22.3%。从月度看，连续6个月保持两位数增速，9月份进出口5.16万亿元，首次突破5万亿元，同比增长27.5%。 #China# #Jiangxi# #世界经济看中国#