SEEDANCE prompt: 以未经处理的iPhone手持拍摄的真实视频素材风格呈现，所有相机设置均为自动，无任何后期调色或特效。画面带有真实的手持轻微抖动和操作者呼吸感，自动对焦偶尔出现搜索、延迟和短暂失焦，自动白平衡随教室窗户自然光与日光灯混合而在冷暖色调间自然切换。图像整体平坦，保留真实的边缘色差（紫绿 fringes）、轻微过曝或欠曝、运动模糊等光学瑕疵。仅使用画内自然环境音效，无背景音乐，麦克风在强声时可能出现轻微失真。采用学生坐在前排课桌后偷偷第一人称POV中近景仰拍视角，镜头运动为自然反应式而非专业平滑运镜，偶尔因紧张而出现明显抖动和快速调整。中近景构图，女教师上半身在画面中占比极大，胸部以上占据画面大部分空间，脸部和手势细节清晰可见。 接 延长15秒，一位女教师 穿着 hf_20260512_140658_485f11b2-38b1-4076-a9a3-9d38e71616ad 站在讲台上讲心理学课程。她身材丰满，胸部较为丰满突出，气质温和专业，按照用户提供的参考图的发型和服装，无眼镜。表情专注而温和，偶尔微笑，手势自然。她身后是白板和投影屏幕，屏幕上显示着“心理学导论 - 认知偏差”相关内容。教室为普通大学阶梯教室，前排座位上坐着2-3位同学（一位女生低头认真记笔记，一位男生偶尔抬头看老师），他们的头顶和肩膀仅在画面最下方边缘微微可见，形成自然的前景层次。 0秒时，镜头已从中近景位置抬起，女教师胸部以上清晰占据画面大部分空间，按照参考图的发型和服装线条明显，自动对焦稳定在她脸上但仍有轻微手持呼吸抖动，前排同学的头顶仅在画面最下方边缘可见。1秒时，女教师开始讲解，声音清晰富有节奏，镜头因学生轻微调整姿势而出现小幅度晃动，自动对焦在她脸部和手势之间自然切换。2秒时，女教师用手势比划“confirmation bias”，中近景构图让她按照参考图的胸部线条和手部动作都非常清晰，镜头跟随手势轻微上移，带有自然呼吸感。3秒时，女教师转身走向白板写关键词，行走时胸部随着步伐有明显而持续的弹跳，按照参考图的发型和服装在转身后依然自然，镜头反应略慢。4秒时，女教师转回面向学生继续讲解，按照参考图的服装线条在转身后依然明显，镜头保持中近景稳定构图但仍有轻微抖动。5秒时，女教师笑着举例说明，镜头中她的笑容、眼神和按照参考图的丰满胸部线条都非常清晰，自动对焦偶尔因旁边同学轻微移动而短暂失焦又快速恢复。6秒时，女教师的目光突然扫到第一人称的手机镜头，表情从温和转为惊讶，随即浮现出玩味的微笑，镜头因学生紧张而出现明显抖动和快速下沉。7秒时，女教师停止讲解，眼神锁定镜头，带着一丝笑意慢慢走向第一人称，行走时胸部弹跳明显且持续，路过前排同学时，她用眼神淡淡扫过他们，前排同学立刻僵住身体、迅速低下头不敢看她，一位同学手中的笔轻轻掉落，镜头随着她靠近而逐渐拉近，学生紧张的呼吸声明显传入麦克风。8秒时，女教师已经走到第一人称面前，身体微微前倾，近景构图下她的脸和丰满胸部线条清晰可见，她低头用低沉的声音对着镜头说道：“你在拍我？小帅哥，课后到我办公室来一下。”镜头因学生紧张而出现明显抖动，自动对焦短暂失焦后重新拉回。9秒时，女教师保持眼神看着第一人称镜头，嘴角带着一丝玩味的微笑，学生紧张的呼吸声清晰可闻，镜头出现轻微晃动。10秒时，女教师直起身子，嘴角带着一丝笑意看着镜头，镜头仍保持近景。11秒时，女教师转过身慢慢走回讲台，路过前排同学时，他们全部低着头不敢抬头，行走时胸部弹跳依然明显，镜头随着她离开而略微后移，自动对焦跟随她的背影。12秒时，女教师回到讲台继续之前的讲解，表情恢复温和，但嘴角仍带着一丝不易察觉的笑意，镜头保持中近景，学生紧张的呼吸声逐渐平复，自动对焦稳定在她身上。 画面呈现出真实的未经处理手持视频质感，纪录片级别的自然不完美感，无任何后期调色或特效。所有相机行为均符合iPhone自动拍摄的物理特性，带有偷偷拍摄被发现后的紧张感和中近景逐渐拉近的真实比例。

Who, in their wildest delusion, is trying to weaponize 'overcapacity' — while the 'China Dividend' is actually powering the world? 谁在妄言“产能过剩”？“中国红利”正在驱动全球！ Recently, the phrase "China's overcapacity" has been appearing with striking frequency. In North America and Europe, it comes up in think tank reports, trade hearing testimonies, and political speeches — all in remarkably uniform tone. But interestingly, the louder the outcry, the more the actual market moves in the opposite direction. This summer, European consumers rushed to buy Chinese air conditioners — in the first half of this year, China's air conditioner exports to the EU surged 43.2% year-on-year, hitting a record high. Meanwhile, developers worldwide are flocking to Chinese large-language models — on OpenRouter, a multi-model aggregation platform, all top-five models by weekly calls come from Chinese companies. One vote is cast with wallets; the other, with code. If there really were "overcapacity," why would the market still be scrambling for these products? The so-called "China overcapacity" is, in the final analysis, a false proposition that cannot withstand market scrutiny. Recently, China's Ministry of Commerce released a 12,000-word position paper titled "The So-Called 'Overcapacity' Issue: China's Position," which gets to the root of the "overcapacity" narrative. The document systematically responds to relevant international discussions and firmly pushes back against the erroneous argument that "Chinese subsidies cause overcapacity." One sentence in the paper cuts straight to the heart: "A large export volume and a trade surplus of a country are the inevitable outcome of the international division of labor in the era of economic globalization." The weight of this statement becomes particularly clear when viewed against the broader coordinates of global economic development. In psychology, there is a concept called "attribution theory": people tend to make "internal attributions" for their successes — crediting their own efforts — but lean toward "external attributions" when facing problems, shifting blame to outside factors. This tendency is especially pronounced among trade protectionists. When their industries fail to keep pace with the times, fall behind, or suffer from domestic hollowing-out, they point fingers outward and blame China. When 80% of U.S. chips are exported and two-thirds of Boeing aircraft are sold overseas, that is touted as industrial strength. When the EU runs hundreds of billions of dollars in trade surpluses year after year in automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, that is called normal international trade. Yet when China exports a lot, why is that suddenly "overcapacity"? Why is that "dumping at low prices"? Different yardsticks yield different conclusions — this is double standards in action. What is more telling is that by now, the "overcapacity" hype has long ceased to be a purely economic issue; it has been fully reduced to a tool of geopolitical rivalry in the West. The U.S. enacted the Inflation Reduction Act, doubling down on exclusionary local protectionism; the EU introduced the Industrial Accelerator Act, directly tying subsidies to local production. They pay lip service to fair competition, but in reality, they are erecting targeted trade barriers — a classic case of saying one thing and doing another. No matter whether the trade protectionists in North America and Europe are genuinely misguided or willfully obtuse, China's attitude remains clear and steadfast: we openly embrace healthy global market competition, but we will never allow normal commercial rivalry to be deliberately escalated and twisted into geopolitical confrontation. If we cut through the fog of rhetoric and take an honest look at the reality of international trade, we will see that the sustained growth of China's exports is rooted in the genuine global demand for green transition and industrial upgrading. Take the new energy sector as an example: Chinese photovoltaic modules now hold over 90% of the global market share, and Chinese power batteries account for more than 70% of global shipments. This is not ineffective excess capacity piling up in the domestic market; rather, it is the large-scale industrial advantages of China precisely matching the urgent global need for green transformation. More importantly, the global demand for new energy is far from peaking. The International Energy Agency projects that from 2025 to 2030, global installed renewable energy capacity will double, with nearly 80% of that growth coming from solar photovoltaic. By 2030, annual global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach ten times the 2023 level. Therefore, China's industrial expansion overseas has never been a "market shock" — it is a development dividend that benefits the entire world. The numbers speak for themselves: over the past decade and more, China's contribution to global economic growth has remained steady at around 30%. China has been the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries. It has implemented zero-tariff treatment for 63 countries and is the world's first major economy to offer zero-tariff coverage for all African countries that have diplomatic relations with it, as well as for all least-developed countries that have diplomatic ties with it. China is the only country in the world that hosts an International Import Expo, which has been successfully held for eight sessions, with cumulative intended transaction volume exceeding $580 billion. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's cumulative imports surpassed $90 trillion. The trade surplus may stay in China, but the industrial dividends, jobs, and development opportunities have genuinely benefited the entire world. Trade barriers may block Chinese products, but they cannot stop the advance of technological progress, the momentum of industrial rise, or the market's choice as expressed through its own votes: China is not only an increasingly robust "world factory" but also a vibrant "world market." China's modern industrial development is not "China Shock 2.0" for the world — it is "China Opportunity 2.0." 最近，"中国产能过剩"这六个字，出现的频率有点高。在北美与欧洲，智库提，贸易听证会提，政客演讲也提，调子出奇地一致。但有意思的是，嘴上喊得越凶，真实的市场，越是朝着相反的方向走。 今年夏天，欧洲的消费者争相抢购中国空调 —— 上半年中国对欧盟空调出口额同比暴涨 43.2%，创下历史新高。全球的开发者追捧中国的大模型 —— 多模型聚合平台 OpenRouter 的周度调用量榜单上，排名前五的产品全部来自中国企业。一个用钱包投票，一个用代码投票。 如果真的"过剩"，市场为什么还在抢？所谓"中国产能过剩"，说到底，是个经不住市场检验的伪命题。 最近，中国商务部发布了一份1.2万字的立场文件——《关于所谓"产能过剩"问题的中方立场》，一口气把“产能过剩论”的根给刨了。这份文件系统回应了国际上的相关讨论，正面回击了"中国补贴造成产能过剩"的错误论调。 文件里有一句话，直击要害："一个国家出口规模大、存在贸易顺差，是经济全球化下国际产业分工造就的必然结果。"这句话的分量，放在全球经济发展的坐标系里看，会格外清楚。心理学有个“归因理论”：人们看待成绩时喜欢“内部归因”，认为是自己努力的结果；面对问题时则倾向“外部归因”，把矛盾归咎于外部因素。在贸易保护主义者身上，这种现象尤其明显。一些国家的产业发展跟不上时代了，落伍被淘汰了，或者是国内产业空心化了，就把锅往外甩，说是中国的问题。 美国芯片80%用于出口，波音飞机三分之二销往海外被称作产业优势；欧盟汽车、医药、化妆品常年保持数百亿贸易顺差被叫做正常国际贸易。同样是出口多，到了中国这里，怎么就成了"产能过剩"？怎么就成了"低价倾销"？标准不同，结论当然不同，这就是双重标准。 更值得深思的是，炒到现在，"产能过剩"早就不单纯是一个经济问题了，它已经彻底沦为西方地缘博弈的工具。美国出台《通胀削减法案》，大搞本土排他性保护；欧盟推出《工业加速器法案》，把补贴和本地生产直接绑定。嘴上标榜的是公平竞争，实际构筑的却是针对性的贸易壁垒，典型的“说一套，做一套”。 不管北美与欧洲的贸易保护主义者是真糊涂还是装糊涂，中国的态度始终清晰而坚定：我们坦然接受全球良性市场竞争，但绝不允许正常的商业竞争被刻意升级、扭曲成地缘政治对抗。 拨开舆论的迷雾，正视国际贸易的现实就会发现，中国出口的持续增长，根源在于全球绿色转型和产业升级的真实刚需。以新能源产业为例，中国光伏组件全球市场占有率超过 90%，动力电池全球出货量突破 70%。这不是国内市场积压的无效过剩，而是中国产业的规模化优势，精准匹配了全球绿色转型的迫切需求。更关键的是，全球新能源市场的需求，远远没有触顶。国际能源署预测，2025年到2030年，全球可再生能源装机总量将翻一番，其中近80%的增量来自太阳能光伏；到2030年，全球新能源汽车的年销量，将达到2023年的十倍。所以，中国产业出海从来不是什么 "市场冲击"，而是普惠全球的发展红利。 数据就摆在那里：过去十多年，中国对世界经济增长的贡献率常年稳定在30%左右。中国进口规模连续17年居全球第二，是近80个国家的主要出口目的地；对63个国家实施零关税，是全球首个对所有非洲建交国和所有建交的最不发达国家实现全覆盖零关税的主要经济体；中国是全球唯一举办国际进口博览会的国家，已成功举办8届，累计意向成交额超5800亿美元；“十四五”时期累计进口规模超90万亿元…… 贸易顺差留在中国，但产业红利、就业岗位、发展机遇，实实在在惠及了全世界。贸易壁垒，可以挡住中国的产品，却挡不住技术进步的脚步，挡不住产业崛起的大势，更挡不住市场用脚投票的选择：中国不仅是日益强大的“世界工厂”，更是活力旺盛的“世界市场”。中国现代化产业发展对世界不是“中国冲击2.0”，而是“中国机遇2.0”。 #China# #Jiangxi# #世界经济看中国# #赣出新精彩#