Jackson hole会议有关ai的摘录 1，AI的发展速度与经济增长潜力 Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago. 资本和劳动力共同创造了处于AI核心地位的大语言模型。用户通过购买Token来使用这些模型。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的Token年化销售额就已超过1,000亿美元，同比增长逾500%。 2. AI可能成为新的生产要素 The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:美联储正在密切关注这一切。我们认识到，AI是一个新的变量——甚至可能成为一种新的生产要素——它将同时影响经济运行和货币政策的实施。这带来了一些重要的研究问题： Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?AI的应用是否会推动整个经济体的生产率显著且持续提高？如果会，这种变化将在何时出现？ Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution? Token的使用与劳动力之间究竟是互补关系，还是竞争关系？下一代AI模型是否需要投入更多资本，抑或这些模型本身能够帮助开发出资本需求较低的解决方案？ 3. AI产业的收益将由谁获得 Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?另一个尚未确定的问题，是AI最终会形成怎样的市场结构。资本收益最终将流向哪里、又将在多长时间内实现，目前并不明确。在发展初期，经济剩余中有多少会流向稀缺资产的所有者——包括AI实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间推移，又有多少价值会由一般企业和消费者获得？AI将对劳动者以及美联储就业使命产生哪些广泛影响？ 4. Token价格与模型分层 Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?同样，我们尚不知道Token的均衡价格。未来是否会出现明显的Token分层，使用户愿意支付越来越高的费用来使用最先进的前沿模型？较旧模型的Token价格是否会下降至其边际成本水平？ 5 美联储将成立专项工作组 We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.我们将借助一个专门研究生产率与就业问题的工作组，深入分析这些事项。我与该工作组以及另外四个工作组负责人的初步交流令人鼓舞。To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.不过需要明确的是，这些工作组的建议将在以后提出，不会影响我们在当前政策环境下所作的决定。但我相信，今天投入的这些研究工作，将使我们在应对未来政策挑战时准备得更加充分。 6. AI已经成为资本开支增长的重要动力 Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.市场对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续观察其增长速度的变化，也就是所谓的“二阶导数”。AI投资对资产价格、企业信心、消费者收入和消费支出所产生的后续影响，同样值得密切评估。 我的看法：Warsh这篇演讲把AI视为一种可能出现的新生产要素，这是一个偏积极的看法。美联储最关心的并非单纯的技术进步，而是AI对生产率、就业、产业收益分配、Token定价以及货币政策的长期影响。Kevin同时认为，AI投资已经对现实经济产生显著作用——今年美国资本支出增长的一半以上可能来自AI建设。

【Senior Couples Swap】 Passionate Licking of Semen (24:41 minutes) Final part After coming back from the shower, I continued passionately kissing Sam! Sam’s penis quickly became hard, and I couldn’t help but give him a blowjob because I still wanted his penis to moisturise my vagina! I feel like I’m becoming more insatiable 🤭 Thinking back, I used to want a quick finish, but now I want as much as possible! Sam quickly couldn’t resist and shoved his hard penis into my already soaking wet vagina! That familiar penis was so strong that it made me climax immediately! At this point, he also started to please me, and I love his kisses 💋 Enjoying being pampered by two men! These moments make it easiest for me to reach a state of ecstasy, with just a bit of consciousness left to touch his penis. Luckily, before long, his wife also joined our sexual session, allowing me to fully enjoy being penetrated! The most passionate moment wasn’t when Sam ejaculated on me, but when… he asked if he could lick Sam’s semen?! I was stunned for a moment before replying that of course he could! He then slowly started licking and eating Sam’s semen, then kissed my neck and even wanted to kiss me… I really couldn’t accept it at the moment and turned my head away 🫢 His wife saw him eating Sam’s semen and asked what he was doing?! Sam was also momentarily taken aback! That’s when I realised it was his first time eating another man’s semen, and it was one of the challenges he set for himself. They had mentioned in our previous conversations that they try to challenge themselves with new things every year. This really opened our eyes and we were inspired by their adventurous spirit. If you don’t do what you want in this lifetime, when will you? This exchange with them not only allowed Sam and me to overcome the age barrier, but their willingness to let us film it was also a breakthrough for them! 【高龄夫妻交换】激情舔精 大结局(24:41分钟） 洗澡回来后，我就与Sam继续激情接吻！Sam的肉棒很快就硬起来，我也忍不住去口交，因为我还想被肉棒滋润我的阴道！感觉自己好像越来越大吃了🤭 回想曾经的我多么希望速战速决，而今天的我反而希望越多越好！ Sam很快也忍不住把他那硬梆梆的肉棒塞进早已湿透的阴道里！这熟悉的肉棒就是那么强，让我马上爽翻了！而他这时候也一起来服务我，我喜欢他的接吻💋 享受被两个男人宠爱自己！这种时刻最容易让我达到忘我的境界，只剩那一点点的意识去抚摸他的肉棒。幸亏没多久，他老婆也加入我们的性爱阵容，我才能好好享受被抽插的时光！ 最激情的时刻不是Sam射在我身上，而是… 他居然问我可否舔Sam的精液吗？！我愣了一下才醒过来回答他当然可以！他就这样慢慢地去舔吃Sam的精液，然后再吻到我的脖子，甚至想跟我接吻… 我真的一时接受不到就别过头去🫢而他老婆看见他吃Sam的精液时，问他在干什么？！Sam也一时看懵了！ 我这才知道原来这是他第一次吃其他男人的精液，也是他给自己的挑战之一，之前聊天时已经听他们说过，他们每一年都会尽量让自己去挑战新事物。 这真的让我们大开眼界，也被他们的勇于挑战的精神给感染到。不趁有生之年去做自己想做的，等几时呢？ 这次与他们交换不只让我和Sam突破了年龄的障碍，他们愿意让我们拍摄，这也何尝也不是他们的突破！