Last wk, S&P/Nas/Mag7 were +1.2%/+1.7%/+4.0% despite oil +4% & bond ylds +7bps on Iran flare-up. 2 days remain during this seasonally favorable time from the last 3 trading days of June through first 9 days of July. Earning season starts w/ big banks on Tuesday. As I first posted about on June 28th and reiterated on July 5th, the seasonality is historically very favorable from the last three trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 3.0%/3.6% during the first 10 trading days of this time period in 2026 already. But for the heart of the AI trade, the Semiconductor (SOX) Index is down 7.0% during these last 10 trading days on fears of a “speed bump” that I have been posting about since 6/28. For the AI trade going forward, two separate thoughts with two different implications are beginning to coalesce in my mind. The first thought is that AI revenue growth for the leading LLM models is likely to hit a “speed bump” and slow in the September quarter. Last week, $SPCX and $META released new LLM models that both closed much of the gap with the leading edge models from OpenAI and Anthropic. But Meta plans to price their model at roughly 1/4th the cost of the two leaders with SpaceX aggressive as well. This is particularly relevant as companies switched from token maxing in March to token minimization in June. As an example, the CEO of Coinbase posted on June 26th, “How to keep AI spend flat while token usage grows exponentially... Putting this into practice has cut our AI spend nearly in half, while our token usage continues to grow.” Sam Altman on Thursday: “we have heard enterprises on their concerns about AI costs, and 5.6 sol is a huge step forward for dollars-per-task, as are terra and luna”. But on a positive note, two more public cloud providers have been recently added to the four that already existed of $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT and $ORCL. SpaceX in the past month raised over $100B in equity plus debt and plans to spend hundreds of billions to attack the $28.5 trillion TAM they talked about in their IPO prospectus. News surrounding Meta last week seems to imply that they are launching a cloud offering not because they have excess compute but so 1) they can double their compute spend from 7 MegaWatts in 2026 to 14 MegaWatts in 2027 and 2) have capacity to sell their Muse Spark LLM. So in summary, with this seasonally favorable period of time for the overall market coming soon to a close, I believe cutting back excess exposure is prudent. Reaction by investors on Tuesday to bank earnings which should be strong, may give us a good tell as to the risk vs reward at current levels over the shorter-term. As for the AI trade, I believe selectivity is key as we work our way through the “speed bump” and the positive implications of 4 aggressive public cloud vendors now becoming six versus the negatives of token maxing in March turning to token minimization in June. All the best in the week ahead.

🌳 Forest area change, 2000–2023 (10 countries with the largest forests) 🇨🇳 China: +48.6M ha (+27.5%) 🇺🇸 United States: +6.3M ha (+2.1%) 🇷🇺 Russia: +6.0M ha (+0.7%) 🇦🇺 Australia: +2.2M ha (+1.7%) 🇨🇦 Canada: -1.0M ha (-0.3%) 🇵🇪 Peru: -3.5M ha (-4.6%) 🇮🇩 Indonesia: -11.0M ha (-10.8%) 🇦🇴 Angola: -12.8M ha (-16.4%) 🇨🇩 DR Congo: -21.0M ha (-14.6%) 🇧🇷 Brazil: -58.1M ha (-10.5%) Source: FAO via World Bank

Premarket movers Mag 7 names are all lower (Apple -0.1%, Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.3%, Meta -1%, Microsoft -1.1%, Nvidia -1.3%, Tesla -1.2%) Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the biotech company to overweight, optimistic about the prospects for deramiocel, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy Charter Communications (CHTR) inches 1% lower after the cable operator said CFO Jessica Fischer will step down in mid October to relocate for another professional opportunity. Duolingo (DUOL) is up 6% after Evercore ISI upgraded the language-learning software company to outperform, noting investor opportunity following severe weakness in the stock, which is down more than 70% off a peak hit in mid-2025. Fervo Energy (FRVO) jumps 13% on a Wall Street Journal report that the geothermal company has signed a deal to sell power to Alphabet’s Google. GoPro (GPRO) soars 76%, with the stock set to extend gains after rallying more than 46% Monday. Kroger (KR) slips 1% after Citi analyst Paul Lejuez cut his price target on the grocer to a Street-low $57 from $61, and adds a downside 30-day catalyst watch on the stock ahead of Kroger’s Sept. 11 earnings report. Medtronic (MDT) gains 4% after the medical device maker boosted its organic revenue forecast for the full year. Micron Technology (MU) dips about 2% after the Taipei-based Liberty Times reported that Micron will deliver its highest incentive pay plan to its Taiwan-based employees in response to a potential strike by its labor union. NIO ADRs (NIO) slip 1% after the carmaker reported vehicle deliveries for August that were largely flat from the previous month. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rises 2% after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation on the exchange to overweight on growth from prediction markets.

OECD Forecasts US 2026 Growth Of 2.2% (Vs 2.0% In June), 2.1% In 2027 (Vs 1.8%) - World 2026 Growth Of 2.9% (Vs 2.8% In June), 3.0% In 2027 (Vs 3.1%) - China 2026 Growth Of 4.5% (Unchanged), 4.2% In 2027 (Vs 4.3%) - Euro Area 2026 Growth Of 1.0% (Vs 0.8% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.2%) - Japan 2026 Growth Of 0.8% (Vs 0.6% In June), 0.7% In 2027 (Vs 0.8%) - UK 2026 Growth Of 1.1% (Vs 0.9% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.1%)

Premarket movers: Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Meta released its most powerful artificial intelligence model yet. Shares are up about 0.7%; elsewhere Tesla +1.2%, Alphabet +0.3%, Amazon +0.2%, Microsoft +0.5%, Nvidia -0.4%, Apple -0.2% Advasa (ADBT) falls 11% after the Japan-based financial technology company, which is listed in the US, said CFO Katharyn Field had resigned. Argan (AGX) rises 6% after the construction company reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Broadcom (AVGO) falls 3% after the chipmaker’s results and forecast were seen as underwhelming. The company predicted a boom in artificial intelligence chip sales over the next two years. Campbell’s (CPB) falls 5% after the food company cut its dividend and provided disappointing guidance. Ciena (CIEN) rises 1% after the maker of equipment used by telecom companies posted third quarter results. Envista (NVST) climbs 2% after JPMorgan upgraded the dental company to overweight, saying the firm is entering its investor day event later this month from a position of improved execution. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) falls 4% after reporting increasing sales that didn’t meet high expectations from investors. NetApp (NTAP) is down 8%, even after the data storage and management company raised its full-year forecast. The stock has been a strong performer this year, up nearly 70% as of its last close. Snowflake (SNOW) jumps 24% after the software company’s second-quarter results beat expectations and the company raised its full-year forecast for product revenue. Analysts note another quarter of product revenue acceleration driven by AI demand. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) plunges 44% after the biotech’s experimental drug aimed at treating a rare genetic disorder failed to meet its primary endpoint in a study. The disappointment prompted several brokerages to downgrade their ratings on the stock. Victoria’s Secret (VSXY) falls 18% after the company boosted guidance but showed a slower pace of growth.

Home Depot Q2 2026 Earnings: - Net Sales $47.86B (est $47.33B) - Comp Sales 1.7% (est +0.94%) - US Comp Sales +1.3% (est +0.85%) - Merchandise Inventories $26.85B (est $26.29B) - Adj EPS $4.92 (est $4.73) - Still Sees FY Comp Sales About 0% TO +2% (est +1.2%) - Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Guidance

BREAKING: US stock market futures surge after the US and Iran halt strikes: 1. S&P 500: +0.7% 2. Nasdaq 100: +1.2% 3. Dow Jones: +0.6% 4. WTI Crude: -8.0% 5. Brent: -6.0% 6. Gold: +0.7% The market is beginning to price-in a peace deal again.

Premarket movers: Nvidia is the biggest gainer among Mag 7 stocks. The chipmaker’s partner Hon Hai reported a better-than-expected increase in quarterly profit, signaling robust global demand for AI hardware. (Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +0.8%, Meta +0.7%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple little changed, Microsoft -0.8%) Cava (CAVA) jumps 13% after the restaurant chain operator reported store comp sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts again note positive trends for its pomegranate glazed salmon. CoreWeave (CRWV) rallies 18% after the cloud-computing provider reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts are positive about the company’s margins and note that AI demand remains robust. ERock (EROC) is up 13% after the power systems firm reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the consensus estimate, and said Anthropic has agreed to buy 470 megawatts of onsite power equipment. H&R Block (HRB) is up 15% after the tax preparation company gave a full-year forecast that was stronger than expected. It also reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Hyliion Holdings (HYLN) is up 23% after the company boosted its full-year revenue forecast from $10 million to $15 million. Lumentum (LITE) gains 8%. Analysts are positive on the maker of optical equipment after it reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook above analyst consensus. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) jumps 9% after giving a revenue forecast for the current quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, a sign the booming artificial intelligence market continues to bolster sales of the company’s servers. US Antimony Corp. (UAMY) falls 14% after the natural resource company cut its full-year outlook for gross revenue.