World Currencies vs. the U.S. Dollar One-Year Change As of June 30, 2026: 🇨🇴 Colombian peso: +19.2% 🇮🇱 Israeli shekel: +13.2% 🇭🇺 Hungarian forint: +8.9% 🇿🇦 South African rand: +8.1% 🇲🇽 Mexican peso: +7.7% 🇨🇳 Chinese yuan: +5.6% 🇦🇺 Australian dollar: +5.2% 🇧🇷 Brazilian real: +5.2% 🇲🇾 Malaysian ringgit: +3.1% 🇳🇴 Norwegian krone: +1.8% 🇨🇱 Chilean peso: +1.0% 🇪🇬 Egyptian pound: +0.8% 🇭🇰 Hong Kong dollar: +0.1% 🇦🇪 UAE dirham: 0.0% 🇶🇦 Qatari riyal: 0.0% 🇸🇦 Saudi riyal: -0.2% 🇷🇺 Russian ruble: -0.4% 🇨🇿 Czech koruna: -1.1% 🇸🇬 Singapore dollar: -1.7% 🇨🇭 Swiss franc: -1.8% 🇹🇭 Thai baht: -2.3% 🇸🇪 Swedish krona: -2.4% 🇪🇺 Euro: -3.0% 🇩🇰 Danish krone: -3.1% 🇬🇧 Pound sterling: -3.4% 🇨🇦 Canadian dollar: -4.1% 🇵🇱 Polish złoty: -4.2% 🇳🇿 New Zealand dollar: -6.8% 🇹🇼 Taiwan dollar: -8.2% 🇵🇭 Philippine peso: -8.2% 🇮🇩 Indonesian rupiah: -9.3% 🇮🇳 Indian rupee: -9.4% 🇯🇵 Japanese yen: -11.3% 🇰🇷 South Korean won: -12.6% 🇹🇷 Turkish lira: -14.6% 🇦🇷 Argentine peso: -18.9% Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP.

CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.

UK Industrial Production (M/M) Aug: 0.8% (est -0.1%; prev 0.2%) - Industrial Production (Y/Y): 1.6% (est 0.7%; prev 0.6%) - Manufacturing Production (M/M): 1.2% (est 0.0%; prev 0.9%) - Manufacturing Production (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 2.3%; prev 2.6%)

September @DallasFed Services Index fell to -1.8 vs. 2.3 est. & 4.2 prior; company outlook down to -3.2 vs. 3.0 prior; revenue down to -0.9 vs. 6.6 prior; employment up to 4.1 vs. 0.8 prior

$PGR（Progressive） 5.8.1 快照与技术选股归属：现价222.88，市值129.58B，52周区间189.2到239.38，现金及等价物138.0M，短期投资10005.0M，流动性合计10143.0M，季度经营现金流3607.0M为正，跑道不适用（经营现金流为正，不依赖现金消耗），年度财报12/31/2025收入87671.0M，净利润11308.0M，研发无M，资本支出-348.0M，季度财报6/30/2026收入23609.0M，净利润3311.0M，流动比率nan%，毛利率17.18%，营业利润率16.54%（数据来源：个股基本面快照，2026-10-14）；技术选股D组硬条件命中，分数58.55，获利盘93.15%，套牢盘6.85%，90%集中度6.92（数据来源：技术选股，2026-10-14）。 5.8.2 主营业务与产品技术亮点：Progressive是美国车险龙头，主营个人汽车保险、房屋保险与商业保险。核心技术亮点包括直接分销与代理人双渠道，基于驾驶行为的UBI定价技术，理赔数字化与快速结算能力。本条不写数字。 5.8.3 事件促发点：2026-10-14 Progressive发布财报，预期EPS为4.46，涉及季度业绩，量级判断重大，方向待定（数据来源：未来5日财报日历，2026-10-14）。暂无其他已公开促发点。 5.8.4 大行研报与消息汇总：目标价均值无，买入无，持有无，卖出无（数据来源：Nasdaq分析师库，2026-10-14）。Barclays目标价246上调至247，上调0.4%，头部国际大行，距现价16.4%（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-07）；HSBC目标价221下调至216，下调-2.3%，非头部，距现价1.79%（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-07）。消息面：Zacks对PGR发出混合展望（Foreign Policy Journal 2026-10-13）。 5.8.5 关键价位、触发与失效：日线支撑筹码峰206.04距现价8.17%，日线压力20日高223.78距现价0.4%，周线支撑周线MA10为216.7距现价2.77%，周线压力52周高239.38距现价7.4%（数据来源：个股筹码四元组与关键价位，2026-10-14）。触发条件为放量突破20日高223.78，失效条件为跌破筹码峰206.04。资金共振同向项数2项（数据来源：3.1节，2026-10-14）。 5.8.6 情景：牛档239.38（周线压力52周高），基准档223.78（日线压力20日高），熊档206.04（日线支撑筹码峰）。从现价到周线压力空间7.4%。 5.8.7 结论：等触发，1到2周期望幅度至223.78约0.4%，赔率中性，建议观察，最大风险是财报不及预期。第一目标223.78，第二目标239.38。 5.9 $BIIB（Biogen） 5.9.1 快照与技术选股归属：现价228.9，市值33.82B，52周区间138.0到238.24，现金及等价物3008.5M，短期投资807.2M，流动性合计3815.7M，季度经营现金流448.9M为正，跑道不适用（经营现金流为正，不依赖现金消耗），年度财报12/31/2025收入9890.6M，净利润1292.9M，研发1778.6M，资本支出-153.8M，季度财报6/30/2026收入2736.0M，净利润97.5M，流动比率267.9%，毛利率75.69%，营业利润率18.83%（数据来源：个股基本面快照，2026-10-14）；技术选股D组硬条件命中，分数38.68，获利盘97.73%，套牢盘2.27%，90%集中度11.81（数据来源：技术选股，2026-10-14）。 5.9.2 主营业务与产品技术亮点：Biogen是生物技术公司，主营多发性硬化、阿尔茨海默病与神经科学药物。核心技术亮点包括神经科学管线深度，阿尔茨海默病抗体药物，与Eisai等合作伙伴的全球商业化能力。本条不写数字。 5.9.3 事件促发点：2026-10-12 JPMorgan升级至Overweight，目标价210上调至300，涉及评级与目标价，量级判断重大，方向利多（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-12）。暂无其他已公开促发点。 5.9.4 大行研报与消息汇总：目标价均值241.96，区间175.0到300.0，买入17家，持有6家，卖出1家，下期EPS预测12.41（Dec 2026），近4周EPS上修2家下修1家（数据来源：Nasdaq分析师库，2026-10-14）。JPMorgan升级至Overweight，目标价210上调至300，上调42.9%，头部五大，距现价32.91%（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-12）；UBS目标价240上调至270，上调12.5%，头部国际大行，距现价21.7%（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-09）；BMO目标价未披露至220，来源弱，非头部，距现价-5.12%（数据来源：MarketBeat 2026-10-12）。消息面：无。 5.9.5 关键价位、触发与失效：日线支撑筹码峰217.12距现价5.43%，日线压力20日高238.24距现价4.08%，周线支撑周线MA10为221.97距现价3.03%，周线压力52周高238.24距现价4.08%（数据来源：个股筹码四元组与关键价位，2026-10-14）。触发条件为放量突破20日高238.24，失效条件为跌破筹码峰217.12。资金共振同向项数3项（数据来源：3.1节，2026-10-14）。 5.9.6 情景：牛档238.24（周线压力52周高，与日线压力同位），基准档217.12（日线支撑筹码峰），熊档221.97（周线支撑周线MA10）。从现价到周线压力空间4.08%。 5.9.7 结论：可买，1到2周期望幅度至238.24约4.1%，赔率中性偏多，建议半仓，最大风险是神经科学药物竞争加剧。第一目标238.24，第二目标无更高参照，突破后重算。

Last wk, SPX/Nas/R2K +0.5%/+0.8%/-1.5% w/ oil -4%. But a hawkish Warsh on Friday led to a bear flattening of the yield curve. Despite $NVDA guide of 70% CY27 rev growth vs consensus of 47%, SOX Index -2.3% while software $IGV +5.9% on solid earnings. In general, many AI investors have been bullish on semiconductors and bearish on software on the belief that AI will displace many point solution software companies. This is why the SOX index is up 62% YTD and IGV is still only up 4% YTD versus the S&P +13%. Situational Awareness was the poster child for this type of positioning. But since the unwinding of the Momentum trade which started on 6/22 (I wrote about these concerns on 6/20), IGV has rallied 25% while the SOX Index has declined 22% through 8/28. For perspective, the Morgan Stanley Momentum index (momentum long performance minus momentum short performance) from 6/22-8/28 is down 36% while their more concentrated TMT index is down 54%. But a bullish twist on AI for the software sector introduced recently is that AI agents will access software tools ~10-100x more often than humans. On 8/6, $TEAM, which was in the bucket of software names widely considered at risk of being replaced by AI, rallied 35% the next day in reaction to solid earnings & outlook. Then on 8/13, $WDAY rallied 18% on the news that private equity firm Silverlake might be pursuing an acquisition which I wrote probably put a floor underneath software. Workday was also supposed to be in the AI crosshairs and private equity has higher bars to clear given their use of leverage and holding period than a typical investor. Then on 8/26, $CRM reported solid results, guidance and a deal with Anthropic (in which they also first invested in May of 2023.) The stock was up 23% in reaction the next day. This seemed to be a strong counterpoint to the SaaS-pocalypse worries. This strategic alliance allows users to execute actions natively inside Claude without needing to open traditional software screens. Salesforce also seems to be changing how they charge customers with fees more related to customer use and benefits to their business. Then on 8/27, Workday reported results which were good enough but arguably acquisition prospects drove more of the stock reaction of +6% the next day from the slightly down opening price. Historically, system of record, security and gaming software have been the only three areas I have liked within software. I now wonder whether the fundamental implications of Atlassian, Workday and Salesforce are supportive of the technical reactions in the software stocks as a group as agentic AI continues to ramp. So how do I square this with my concerns that the rapidly escalating amounts spent on AI by corporations has to come from somewhere? Annualized revenue run-rates for Anthropic and OpenAI have ramped from $29B to start the year to $105B just 7 months later. Software spending globally excluding AI was roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But IT services at $1.7 trillion is a bigger category which I believe still has risk. And finally, knowledge worker compensation is an even bigger category where disruption would be even less noticeable at an estimated $35-50 trillion in 2025 or roughly 30% of the global workforce. Looking forward, the deal on Friday for Venezuelan oil fields that hold the largest crude reserves in the world at 17-18% should get us off to a positive start to the week with declining oil prices. But a bit further out: 1) “Don’t Fight the Fed” given I believe a hike is likely on 9/16 because the 10/28 mtg is right before mid-terms, 2) September has the poorest seasonality of all months, 3) there is even worse seasonality than normal during mid-term election years (see prior posts for more detail) and 4) recent bipartisan pushback against datacenter expansion (one of the few things both sides seem to agree on though I believe this is wrong and hope it will change with more education) puts pressure on the AI infrastructure names. As Warren Buffett says, the market has to keep pitching but you do not need to swing.

Child Poverty Rate in OECD Share of population aged 0-17 living in poverty: 1. 🇨🇷 Costa Rica: 29.6% 2. 🇮🇱 Israel: 23.2% 3. 🇪🇸 Spain: 21.5% 4. 🇺🇸 United States: 21.1% 5. 🇧🇬 Bulgaria: 19.1% 6. 🇷🇴 Romania: 17.7% 7. 🇬🇧 UK: 15.8% 8. 🇮🇹 Italy: 14.5% 9. 🇨🇦 Canada: 14.0% 10. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg: 13.5% 11. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: 12.8% 12. 🇸🇰 Slovakia: 12.8% 13. 🇵🇹 Portugal: 12.5% 14. 🇭🇷 Croatia: 12.3% 15. 🇬🇷 Greece: 12.3% 16. 🇫🇷 France: 12.0% 17. 🇭🇺 Hungary: 11.3% 18. 🇱🇻 Latvia: 10.0% 19. 🇦🇹 Austria: 9.8% 20. 🇩🇪 Germany: 9.1% 21. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: 9.1% 22. 🇨🇿 Czechia: 8.8% 23. 🇰🇷 South Korea: 8.5% 24. 🇸🇪 Sweden: 8.4% 25. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: 8.4% 26. 🇪🇪 Estonia: 8.2% 27. 🇧🇪 Belgium: 7.9% 28. 🇵🇱 Poland: 7.8% 29. 🇳🇴 Norway: 6.9% 30. 🇮🇪 Ireland: 6.8% 31. 🇸🇮 Slovenia: 6.2% 32. 🇫🇮 Finland: 4.6% Source: OECD Income Distribution Database. 2023 data, the latest available as of August 2026

HERE ARE SOME OF THE STOCKS THAT HIT A NEW 52-WEEK HIGH OR LOW TODAY New 52-week highs • Global Payments $GPN +10.7% • Gilead $GILD +3.6% • Eli Lilly $LLY +3.2% • Cheniere Energy $LNG +3.0% • ConocoPhillips $COP +2.3% • Altria $MO +1.9% • Keurig Dr Pepper $KDP +1.8% • Exxon Mobil $XOM +1.7% • Pfizer $PFE +1.7% • Chevron $CVX +1.6% • AbbVie $ABBV +1.2% • Visa $V +1.0% • Shell $SHEL +0.8% • Mastercard $MA +0.6% • Johnson & Johnson $JNJ -0.3% New 52-week lows • Reddit $RDDT -29.8% • Coinbase $COIN -13.5% • AppLovin $APP -10.6% • Iren $IREN -10.5% • Applied Digital $APLD -10.1% • Cameco $CCJ -9.8% • Kinross Gold $KGC -8.4% • Mobileye $MBLY -7.8% • Alnylam $ALNY -4.8% • Nio $NIO -4.1% • Baidu $BIDU -3.5% • Banco Bradesco $BBD -2.9% • Xpeng $XPEV -1.9% • Take-Two $TTWO -1.3% • Vale $VALE +1.2% Oil, pharma and payments stocks hit new highs, led by Global Payments +10.7%. On the other side, Reddit fell -29.8% and Coinbase -13.5% to new lows after their earnings.

BREAKING: US stock market futures surge after Pakistan announces that the US and Iran have reached a peace deal: 1. S&P 500: +0.8% 2. Nasdaq 100: +1.3% 3. Dow Jones: +0.6% 4. WTI Crude: -5.0% 5. Brent: -4.0% 6. Gold: +2.0% Pakistan says the peace deal is set to be signed on June 19th.

WE HAVE NOW OFFICIALLY COMPLETED 7 OUT OF THE 12 MONTHS IN 2026 This is how every stock in the NASDAQ 100 has performed so far in 2026 Sandisk $SNDK +411.8%🟢 Western Digital $WDC +216.3%🟢 Seagate $STX +210.9%🟢 Micron $MU +188.4%🟢 Intel $INTC +144.4%🟢 Nebius $NBIS +127.5%🟢 AMD $AMD +122.3%🟢 Marvell $MRVL +120.7%🟢 Arm Holdings $ARM +119.3%🟢 Fortinet $FTNT +103.9%🟢 Applied Materials $AMAT +97.5%🟢 Datadog $DDOG +97.1%🟢 Lumentum $LITE +93.7%🟢 Teradyne $TER +90.0%🟢 Astera Labs $ALAB +87.1%🟢 Palo Alto $PANW +80.2%🟢 Lam Research $LRCX +71.2%🟢 CrowdStrike $CRWD +62.9%🟢 Texas Instruments $TXN +58.9%🟢 Monolithic Power $MPWR +57.3%🟢 ASML $ASML +52.3%🟢 Cisco $CSCO +50.6%🟢 KLA Corp $KLAC +50.5%🟢 Ross Stores $ROST +39.4%🟢 CSX $CSX +39.0%🟢 Analog Devices $ADI +35.5%🟢 Old Dominion $ODFL +35.3%🟢 Diamondback Energy $FANG +35.0%🟢 Baker Hughes $BKR +32.8%🟢 DexCom $DXCM +25.7%🟢 Monster Beverage $MNST +25.7%🟢 Starbucks $SBUX +25.0%🟢 PACCAR $PCAR +21.2%🟢 Coca-Cola Europacific $CCEP +20.7%🟢 Marriott $MAR +20.2%🟢 Fastenal $FAST +18.9%🟢 Honeywell $HON +18.9%🟢 Amgen $AMGN +17.7%🟢 Amazon $AMZN +17.7%🟢 Microchip $MCHP +16.6%🟢 Mondelez $MDLZ +15.8%🟢 Google $GOOGL +13.8%🟢 Apple $AAPL +13.6%🟢 Broadcom $AVGO +12.5%🟢 Linde $LIN +12.2%🟢 Airbnb $ABNB +11.6%🟢 Keurig Dr Pepper $KDP +11.1%🟢 American Electric Power $AEP +10.9%🟢 Costco Wholesale $COST +10.4%🟢 Cintas CTAS +8.8%🟢 Cadence CDNS +8.8%🟢 Nvidia NVDA +7.6%🟢 Kraft Heinz KHC +6.6%🟢 Gilead Sciences GILD +6.1%🟢 Xcel Energy XEL +5.9%🟢 NXP Semiconductors NXPI +5.6%🟢 Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX +5.2%🟢 Exelon EXC +5.1%🟢 Paychex PAYX +4.2%🟢 ADP +3.6%🟢 Electronic Arts EA +2.7%🟢 Ferrovial FER +0.8%🟢 CoreWeave CRWV +0.2%🟢 Walmart WMT -0.2%🔴 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN -1.2%🔴 PayPal PYPL -2.0%🔴 O'Reilly Automotive ORLY -2.0%🔴 PepsiCo PEP -2.8%🔴 Microsoft MSFT -3.9%🔴 Take-Two TTWO -5.1%🔴 MercadoLibre MELI -6.8%🔴 Rocket Lab RKLB -6.9%🔴 Axon AXON -7.1%🔴 Warner Bros. Discovery WBD -8.7%🔴 Booking BKNG -10.0%🔴 Roper ROP -11.9%🔴 DoorDash DASH -13.4%🔴 Qualcomm QCOM -13.7%🔴 Comcast CMCSA -14.4%🔴 T-Mobile TMUS -14.9%🔴 Meta Platforms META -15.7%🔴 GE HealthCare Technologies GEHC -17.1%🔴 Synopsys SNPS -17.2%🔴 IDEXX IDXX -17.4%🔴 Autodesk ADSK -20.9%🔴 PDD Holdings PDD -21.9%🔴 Netflix NFLX -23.5%🔴 Thomson Reuters TRI -24.5%🔴 Workday WDAY -25.4%🔴 Copart CPRT -25.6%🔴 Constellation Energy CEG -25.6%🔴 Shopify SHOP -27.2%🔴 SpaceX SPCX -27.8%🔴 Adobe ADBE -28.5%🔴 Honeywell Aerospace HONA -30.5%🔴 Palantir PLTR -30.8%🔴 Tesla TSLA -30.8%🔴 Intuitive Surgical ISRG -37.6%🔴 Strategy MSTR -38.6%🔴 AppLovin APP -41.3%🔴 Alnylam Pharmaceuticals ALNY -48.3%🔴 Intuit INTU -52.3%🔴