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@WOLF_Financial
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ON THIS DAY IN 2008, THE DOW WENT FROM DOWN MORE THAN 300 POINTS TO UP 552 IN A SINGLE SESSION It was the middle of the financial crisis. By early afternoon, the Dow had dropped below 8,000, and the S&P 500 sank to a multiyear low. Then buyers rushed in. By the close, the Dow was up 552 points, a gain of +6.7% and its third-biggest percentage gain of 2008. But the rally didn't last. The Dow still fell another -26% before bottoming in March 2009. Investors who sold out of fear missed days like this. Investors who bought on days like this still had to sit through more pain. That's why trying to time the market is so hard.
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NVIDIA-BACKED NSCALE SAYS IT NEEDS MORE MONEY TO BUILD FOR ANTHROPIC The AI cloud company, which is preparing a U.S. IPO, says it will need additional financing to meet its obligations in 2027, according to its updated IPO filing. The reason: it placed large new orders for GPUs and networking gear, partly to avoid delay penalties under its contracts with Anthropic, which could pay Nscale up to about $44.6 billion. Some of those commitments can't be deferred, reduced or canceled, the filing says. Nscale lost $761.8 million in 2025, up from $78.2 million in 2024.
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MICROSOFT'S OUTAGE IS ONE OF THE LONGEST IN ITS HISTORY A more than 16-hour outage of $MSFT Outlook and Teams crippled communications for businesses and governments worldwide on Friday, forcing some organizations back to fax machines and halting at least one bond repurchase in Europe, Reuters reported. Government agencies from Australia to Japan and the US were hit, along with Britain's NHS, which rescheduled procedures. Euronext asked listed companies to phone in, and OpenAI and Anthropic reported issues with Microsoft connectors. Microsoft blamed server problems, said it is not aware of any malicious activity, and reported signs of stabilization. The fault hit features tied to Exchange Online, so organizations hosting on their own servers were largely spared. It is Microsoft's second service disruption this year. "If reliability starts to look like a recurring problem, it hands every IT department a reason to think twice before putting even more of their business in one provider's hands," said eToro's Josh Gilbert.
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ANTHROPIC WILL PAY UP TO $405,000 TO KEEP ITS DATA CENTERS FUELED A job listing for a "Gas Supply & Transport Lead" carries a salary range of $320,000 to $405,000. The role will own natural gas supply for the data centers Anthropic runs itself in the U.S. and Canada. Some of those campuses will run on gas-fired power made on site. The listing puts it bluntly: if the gas doesn't arrive, "the compute does not run." Anthropic is expected to go public next week.
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THE NASDAQ PEAKED ON MARCH 10, 2000. IT DIDN'T CLOSE ABOVE THAT LEVEL AGAIN FOR 15 YEARS Nasdaq Composite close on March 10, 2000: 5,048.62 By Oct. 9, 2002, it had fallen to 1,114.11, a drop of about -78%. It finally closed above its 2000 peak on April 23, 2015. Plenty of the companies behind the bubble were real and changed the world. Investors still paid far too much for them.
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MISSING JUST THE 10 BEST DAYS IN THE STOCK MARKET CUT THE ENDING VALUE OF A $10,000 INVESTMENT BY MORE THAN HALF $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 through the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY from October 2006 to October 2026, with dividends reinvested, per The Motley Fool: - Stayed invested the whole time: about $82,300 - Missed the 10 best days: about $35,700 - Missed the 20 best days: about $21,500 - Missed the 40 best days: about $9,900 That's 40 days out of roughly 5,000 trading days. Seven of the 10 best days came within two weeks of one of the 10 worst days. Selling after a bad day often means missing the rebound. Not financial advice.
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WHAT ARE INVESTORS ACTUALLY BUYING WHEN THEY BUY AGILITY ROBOTICS? Scott Walter, Robotics Research Diligence Director at RoboStrategy, gives his take in the full interview He says it's still an early-stage company that raced to market through a SPAC. At around 14 times 2025 revenue, he says you're buying the future, not the present. His advice is to put the "first pure-play humanoid" label aside and do your due diligence on Digit 5, the robot he says the company's future rests on. He also explains why he thinks humanoids could do a majority of physical work within five years, and why the robots don't have to do everything to be useful. They just have to do enough that someone is willing to pay for that work.
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BERNIE MADOFF'S CLIENTS HAD $64.8 BILLION ON THEIR ACCOUNT STATEMENTS. MOST OF IT WAS NEVER THERE Madoff was arrested on Dec. 11, 2008. Prosecutors put the fraud at $64.8 billion, based on client account balances as of Nov. 30, 2008. Those balances were built on made-up gains. Court-appointed trustee Irving Picard estimated the money investors actually put in and lost at $17.5 billion. Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 counts in March 2009 and was sentenced to 150 years in prison. As of Oct. 23, 2026, Picard had recovered or reached agreements to recover about $15.5 billion, per the trustee's website. Customers with approved claims had been repaid at least 72.8% of them.
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HERE'S WHAT THE 🇺🇸 STOCK MARKET LOOKED LIKE TODAY Up • AMD $AMD +5.9% • Broadcom $AVGO +5.5% • Arista Networks $ANET +5.1% • Valero $VLO +3.1% • Marathon Petroleum $MPC +2.5% • Exxon $XOM +1.8% • Google $GOOGL +1.8% • Tesla $TSLA +1.7% Down • Nvidia $NVDA -4.4% • SanDisk $SNDK -4.2% • Royal Caribbean $RCL -3.9% • Lumentum $LITE -3.6% • Bloom Energy $BE -3.6% • Palo Alto Networks $PANW -3.6% • Applied Materials $AMAT -3.5% • GE Aerospace $GE -3.5% Nvidia fell -4.4% while AMD +5.9% and Broadcom +5.5% rallied. Chip equipment slipped, with Applied Materials -3.5% and KLA $KLAC -2.3%. Most of the market was red. Financials and healthcare lagged, with Visa $V -1.2%, Blackstone $BX -2.8% and Thermo Fisher $TMO -2.6%. Energy was the bright spot, led by Valero +3.1%, Marathon Petroleum +2.5% and Exxon +1.8%. Google +1.8% and Tesla +1.7% also held up.
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$NVDA IS THE CHEAPEST IT'S BEEN IN ABOUT 14 YEARS The stock trades at about 11 times what analysts expect it to earn over the next 12 months, its lowest forward P/E in roughly 14 years, Reuters reported. That's down from about 25 times at the end of 2025 and 57 times at the end of 2021, according to LSEG data. Analysts expect Nvidia to earn about $14.72 a share over the next 12 months. The stock is down about 31% from its Oct. 6 peak, and Jensen Huang's resignation as CEO today adds new uncertainty.
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NUBANK $NU JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS - Revenue: $5.82B, beating expectations of $5.68B 🟢 - Net Income: $1.09B (+31% YoY) - ROE: 32% - Customers: 142.6M (+3.7M QoQ) Key Updates: - Mexico Bank: 870K customers added in the first quarter - Nu US: Reached customers in all 50 states
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CEREBRAS $CBRS JUST REPORTED Q3 EARNINGS - Core Revenue: $230.9M , beating expectations of $214B 🟢 - GAAP Revenue: $210.8M (+55% YoY) - Core Gross Margin: 41% (+30 bps YoY) - GAAP Gross Margin: 20% - Remaining Performance Obligations: $26.1B Q4 Guidance: - Core Revenue: ~$310M-$330M - Core Gross Margin: 47%-49% - Core Operating Margin: -1% to 1% Raises FY26 Guidance: - Core Revenue: $940M-$960M - Core Gross Margin: 42%-44% - Core Operating Margin: -10% to -8% Key Updates: - Data Center Capacity: 700 MW under contract for delivery by end-2027 - CS-4: Up to 30x faster inference (soon in full production)
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CISCO $CSCO JUST REPORTED Q1 EARNINGS - Revenue: $18.5B, beating expectations of $18.13B 🟢 - Non-GAAP EPS: $1.40, beating expectations of $1.33 🟢 - Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.6% - Non-GAAP Oper Income: $7.0B (+37% YoY) - Product Orders: +32% YoY - AI Infra Orders: $9B in FY27 (more than double FY26) Q2 Guidance: - Revenue: $18.0B-$18.2B, above expectations of $17.88B 🟢 - Non-GAAP EPS: $1.34-$1.36, above expectations of $1.23 🟢 - Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65%-66% Raises FY27 Guidance: - Revenue: $74.8B-$75.8B, above expectations of $73.02B 🟢 - Non-GAAP EPS: $5.47-$5.53, above expectations of $5.11 🟢 Key Updates: - Returned to Stockholders: $3.7B
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APPLIED MATERIALS $AMAT JUST REPORTED Q4 EARNINGS - Revenue: $10.41B, beating expectations of $10.3B 🟢 - Adj EPS: $4.16, beating expectations of $4.05 🟢 - Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 50.6% - Non-GAAP Oper Income: $3.68B - Non-GAAP FCF: $2.6B - Semiconductor Systems: $8.0B (+64% YoY) Q1 Guidance: - Revenue: $11.10B +/- $500M, above expectations of $10.89B 🟢 - Adj EPS: $4.35 +/- $0.20, above expectations of $4.26 🟢
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PETER LYNCH AVERAGED A +29% RETURN PER YEAR FOR 13 YEARS RUNNING FIDELITY'S MAGELLAN FUND From 1977 to 1990, the fund's assets grew from about $18 million to more than $14 billion, one of the best runs in mutual fund history. He did it through recessions, rate spikes and the 1987 Black Monday drop. Years later he wrote that "the real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them."
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RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES SOLD 99.7% OF ITS $NVDA STAKE IN Q3 The quant firm founded by the late Jim Simons held 23,170 Nvidia shares at the end of September, down from 7.09 million at the end of June, according to its latest 13F filing. That stake was worth $1.4 billion in June. It also sold 99.9% of its Meta stake. Meanwhile, it piled into other chipmakers: - Micron: up 619% to 1.52 million shares, now its biggest holding at $1.6 billion - AMD: up 140% to about 2 million shares, its second biggest at $1.2 billion It also opened a new $621 million position in SpaceX. 13F filings show U.S.-listed holdings as of Sept. 30.
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92% OF JOSH KUSHNER'S THRIVE CAPITAL STOCK PORTFOLIO IS SPACEX Thrive reported 46.9 million $SPCX shares worth about $7.1 billion as of Sept. 30, according to the 13F it filed today. That's 92% of the $7.7 billion of U.S.-listed stocks it reported. Its SpaceX stake grew from 18.9 million shares at the end of June. The rest of the portfolio: - Amazon: $225 million - Shopify: $133 million - Oscar Health convertible notes: $132 million - Figma: $92 million - Securitize: $25 million 13F filings show only U.S.-listed stocks, not Thrive's private investments, such as its stake in OpenAI.
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SPACEX AND TESLA $TSLA MERGER TALKS ARE PROGRESSING Advisers are discussing terms, and a deal could be announced as early as December, though it could slip into 2027, according to Bloomberg. At today's prices, SpaceX is worth about $1.9 trillion and Tesla about $1.6 trillion, or about $3.5 trillion combined. Elon Musk runs both companies and has been pushing for a merger.
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$10,000 IN THE S&P 500 IN 1960 GREW TO $7.58 MILLION WITH DIVIDENDS REINVESTED. WITHOUT THEM, IT GREW TO $1.14 MILLION That's through the end of 2025, per Hartford Funds. Since 1940, dividends have made up about a third of the S&P 500's total return. In the 1970s, they made up 73% of it. In the 2010s, just 17%. Reinvested dividends look small in any single year. Over decades, they've been the difference between a good result and a great one.
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THE U.S. JUST RAN ITS BIGGEST OCTOBER DEFICIT ON RECORD: $404 BILLION That's up 42% from $284 billion in October 2025, the previous record for the month. Spending rose 12% to $773 billion, also an October record. Receipts fell 9% to $369 billion: - Individual income taxes: down 14% - Customs duties: down 39% - Interest on the debt: $103 billion in one month, up 13% October is the first month of the government's 2027 fiscal year.
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