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Last wk, the AI surge post Situational Awareness resolution continued. S&P/NAS/SOX was +3.6%/+5.2%/+9.2%. WTI -8% with 10Y bond ylds -9bps helped. I wrote on 7/29, “we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump.” I thought forced liquidations of both retail accounts and hedge funds were creating a bottom. The next day, Situational Awareness had a forced sale of all its public equity positions. The Morgan Stanely Momentum Index is now up a whopping 14% in just 7 trading days from July 29th following the 38% drawdown from June 22nd to July 29th. The more concentrated TMT Index is up 25% from 7/29 following the 54% decline from 6/22-7/29. The S&P/Nasdaq/SOX (Semiconductor Index) is up 6.0%/9.2%/18.3% since 7/29. To end the week, the less than expected jobs report on Friday encouraged equity and bond markets that had been worrying about rate hikes. I still believe hikes are less likely than current fears given Kevin Warsh was appointed as Fed Chairman for his belief in AI being deflationary. The CPI report on Wednesday will be important for this thesis. It was encouraging to see the semiconductor sector rally 9.2% last week despite the acid test of lackluster results from $AMD and the memory names which have been the tip of the spear in the semiconductor trade. $AMD had both revs and EPS edge up low single digits for Q3 but this was disappointing compared to $INTC EPS going up ~40% for Q3. AMD’s stock was up 2% for the entire week despite declining 7% in reaction to results the next day. $SNDK was flat for the entire week despite declining 7% the next day in reaction to guiding CQ3 revenues 2% below consensus. $WDC was down 20% last week after guiding EPS just 4% above consensus for CQ3 which was disappointing relative to $STX results where CQ3 moved up 25%. In the near-term, I continue not to be a fan of the memory sector relative to other AI infrastructure names given I remain concerned about US companies like $AAPL getting approval to use Chinese memory & recent moves by $NVDA to lessen memory requirements. Nvidia is evaluating shipping the Rubin Ultra with as little as 192 GB of HBM vs the original roadmap of 1 Terabyte. But this would be good for Nvidia that reports earnings later this month given they could ship a lot more GPUs for a given amount of memory. Also Elon Musk stated last week, "Going forward, we have decided to build exclusively on Nvidia, because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture.” This is a powerful statement given the many companies trying to push the benefits of their ASIC accelerators. Nvidia is also a value and growth play at the same time with just a 25x CY26 PE for over 80% revenue growth. Revenue growth for Nvidia has also accelerated for every quarter from July 2025 at 56% y/y to expectations of 96% for July of 2026. In support of this growth, the six big hyperscalers saw capex growth accelerate from 84% y/y in the March quarter to 92% in the June qtr with forecasts of nearly 100% growth in the September quarter. Each quarter of 2026 is showing higher y/y capex growth than at any time during this AI buildout. In summary, I believe the near-term pain trade is higher in equity markets. For those funds that got punished in July and were forced to de-gross near the bottom, FOMO and performance chasing is now kicking in. None of my technical indicators are flashing overbought yet given the severe drawdowns prior to the current rally. The evolving situation in Iran is obviously the wildcard. Best of luck in the week ahead.
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OECD Forecasts US 2026 Growth Of 2.2% (Vs 2.0% In June), 2.1% In 2027 (Vs 1.8%) - World 2026 Growth Of 2.9% (Vs 2.8% In June), 3.0% In 2027 (Vs 3.1%) - China 2026 Growth Of 4.5% (Unchanged), 4.2% In 2027 (Vs 4.3%) - Euro Area 2026 Growth Of 1.0% (Vs 0.8% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.2%) - Japan 2026 Growth Of 0.8% (Vs 0.6% In June), 0.7% In 2027 (Vs 0.8%) - UK 2026 Growth Of 1.1% (Vs 0.9% In June), 1.0% In 2027 (Vs 1.1%)
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Update: The Trump administration committed $2,000,000,000 to quantum computing companies in exchange for equity stakes Majority of them are public and surging today • GlobalFoundries $GFS +4.2% • Rigetti $RGTI +3.0% • Infleqtion $INFQ +2.9% • D-Wave Quantum $QBTS +0.9% • IBM $IBM -0.6%
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President Trump Just Disclosed Over $1.4 Billion in Crypto Holdings But How Are USA 🇺🇸 Coins Actually Performing This Week? $SOL: +12.2% $BCH: +10.0% $AVAX: +9.2% $KAS: +9.5% $XLM: +3.6% $ADA: +3.3% $ONDO: +3.0% $LINK: -0.9% $RENDER: -1.7% $UNI: -3.1% $XRP: -3.1% $HBAR: -6.7% $SUI: -6.32% $DOGE: -6.2% Six out of ten in the green, more winners than losers for the first time in weeks. $SOL leading the charge at +12.2% while $DOGE takes the worst hit at -6.2%. The president's disclosure spans 927 pages and includes $635M in meme coin royalties, $526M from World Liberty Financial, and $50M+ in Bitcoin cold storage. He's all in, and the market seems to be slowly noticing. Is this the beginning of a real USA coin rotation, or just a brief reprieve before the red returns?
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$VKTX vs $LLY in terms of Safety and tolerability so far based on available data. Conclusion- $VKTX 17.5 mg Is the best Commercial Dose (de-risked PH3) with best tolerability-to-efficacy ratio and is competitive with retatrutide in efficacy and best in class in safety vs retatrutide. Data here ⬇️⬇️ Retatrutide- Safety TRIUMPH‑1 shows: Nausea: 4 mg: 28.6% 9 mg: 38.4% 12 mg: 42.4% Diarrhea: 4 mg: 25.2% 9 mg: 34.1% 12 mg: 32.0% Placebo: 13.5% Constipation: 4 mg: 23.8% 9 mg: 25.9% 12 mg: 26.1% Placebo: 10.9% Vomiting: 4 mg: 10.6% 9 mg: 22.8% 12 mg: 25.3% Placebo: 4.8% Dysesthesia: 4 mg: 5.1% 9 mg: 12.3% 12 mg: 12.5% Placebo: 0.9% Keep in mind- Skin sensitivity event is not a class-wide GLP/GIP feature, could likely be linked to this molecule. Discontinuation due to AEs 4 mg: 4.1% 9 mg: 6.9% 12 mg: 11.3% Placebo: 4.9% Basically, a double-digit discontinuation at 12mg dose a real risk for commercial take. $VKTX Based on Maintenance data reported last week. My focus is primarily on $17.5mg dose Nausea Placebo: ~10–12% 10 mg: ~15–18% 15 mg: ~18–22% 17.5 mg: ~20–25% 20 mg: ~22–28% 22.5 mg: ~25–30% Vomiting Placebo: ~2–3% 10 mg: ~4–6% 15 mg: ~5–7% 17.5 mg: ~6–8%20 mg: ~7–10% 22.5 mg: ~8–12% Diarrhea Placebo: ~8–10% 10 mg: ~10–12% 15 mg: ~12–14% 17.5 mg: ~12–15% 20 mg: ~14–17% 22.5 mg: ~15–18% Discontinuation Due to AEs Placebo: ~3–4% 10 mg: ~3–4% 15 mg: ~4–5% 17.5 mg: ~4–6% 20 mg: ~5–7% 22.5 mg: ~6–8% Key point: The 17.5 mg discontinuation rate is essentially placebo‑like safety.
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CHOOSE YOUR FIGHTER Warren Buffett vs Stanley Druckenmiller Buffett stepped down as Charman of Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B today. Druckenmiller has never had a losing year in more than 30 years. Here are their full portfolios as of Q2 2026. BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY - Apple $AAPL: 22% - American Express $AXP: 17% - Google $GOOGL: about 12.6% across both share classes - Coca-Cola $KO: 11% - Bank of America $BAC: 9.2% - Chevron $CVX: 4.7% - Occidental $OXY: 4.3% - Chubb $CB: 3.9% - Moody's $MCO: 3.7% - Kraft Heinz $KHC: 2.6% - DaVita $DVA: 2.1% - Delta $DAL: 1.8% - SiriusXM $SIRI: 1.2% - VeriSign $VRSN: 0.8% - Kroger $KR: 0.7% - Liberty Live $LLYVA: about 0.6% across both share classes - Ally $ALLY: 0.4% - Lennar $LEN: 0.4% - New York Times $NYT: 0.4% - Capital One $COF: 0.2% - Louisiana-Pacific $LPX: 0.1% - Nucor $NUE: 0.1% - Macy's $M: 0.1% - NVR $NVR - Jefferies $JEF - D.R. Horton $DHI DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE - Natera $NTRA: 17% - Insmed $INSM: about 5.7% in shares and calls - Taiwan Semi $TSM: 5.4% - Brazil ETF $EWZ: about 5.1% in shares and calls - Amazon $AMZN: about 4.6% in shares and calls - STMicro $STM: 4.5% - S&P 500 Equal Weight $RSP: about 3.7% in calls and shares - Fox $FOXA: about 2.8% across both share classes - YPF $REPYY: 2.7% - CDW $CDW: about 2.7% in shares and calls - BBB Foods $TBBB: 2.3% - Google $GOOGL: 2.3% - Seagate blockstack:native: 2.3% - United Airlines $UAL: 2.1% - Sea $SE: 2.0% - NewAmsterdam Pharma $NAMS: 2.0% - Russell 2000 ETF $IWM: 1.9% in calls - Sandisk $SNDK: 1.5% - Revolution Medicines $RVMD: 1.4% - S&P 500 ETF: 1.3% in calls - Bitdeer: 1.2% - CRH: 1.1% - Delta: 1.1% - Tesla $TSLA: 1.0% in calls - Fluor: 1.0% - D.R. Horton: 0.9% - Coupang: 0.9% - AMD: 0.8% - Palo Alto Networks: 0.8% - Cleveland-Cliffs: 0.8% - Hut 8: 0.7% - Caris Life Sciences: 0.6% - Argentina ETF: 0.6% - Woodward: 0.5% - Meta: 0.5% in calls - Nuvation Bio: 0.5% - Protagonist Therapeutics: 0.5% - Roku: 0.5% - Cavco: 0.5% - ADMA Biologics: 0.4% - Hyperliquid Strategies: 0.4% - Rambus: 0.4% - Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: 0.4% - Champion Homes: 0.4% - Daktronics: 0.4% - PureCycle: 0.4% - Southern Copper: 0.4% - Linde: 0.4% - Entegris: 0.4% - Teva: 0.4% - Unity: 0.4% - Aeva: 0.4% - Riot Platforms: 0.4% - Qnity Electronics: 0.4% - Equinix: 0.4% - Lam Research: 0.4% - Definium Therapeutics: 0.3% - Belite Bio: 0.3% - 10x Genomics: 0.3% - Wabtec: 0.3% - Eli Lilly: 0.3% - Xenon Pharmaceuticals: 0.3% - Olema Pharmaceuticals: 0.2% - Repligen: 0.2% - Rocket Companies: 0.2% - Baidu: 0.2% - Arm: 0.2% - Carvana: 0.2% - Reddit: 0.2% - Alcoa: 0.2% - Thermo Fisher: 0.2% - Danaher: 0.2% - F5: 0.2% - Vista Energy: 0.2% - Skeena Resources: 0.2% - JBS: 0.1% - Monte Rosa Therapeutics: 0.1% - Relay Therapeutics: 0.1% - DBV Technologies: 0.1% - CCC Intelligent Solutions: 0.1% - UWM Holdings: 0.1% - Navitas Semiconductor: 0.1% - Solstice Advanced Materials: 0.1% - FTAI Aviation: 0.1% - Beam Therapeutics: 0.1% - Aurora Innovation: 0.1% - IREN: 0.1% - Grupo Financiero Galicia: 0.1% - Wave Life Sciences: under 0.1% Both own Google, Delta and D.R. Horton. Neither owns Nvidia $NVDA.
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Digital Credit - Weekly Close (Sep. 11) The credit stack keeps grinding higher while the commons digest. And there's a new source to follow all things Digital Credit. 👉 @Strategy went on buyback offense... • $MSTR -8.3% w/w to $130.97, giving back part of the run. Net mNAV held at 1.10x, still above 1.08x a month ago. • $STRC ended at $98.64 (+0.9% w/w), a fresh multi-month high. Strategy announced that it repurchased another $176M this week, its biggest buyback yet, taking the program past $800M. @Strive crossed a milestone... • $ASST +1.8% w/w to $27.62. Net mNAV 2.37x, and BTC yield YTD is now +46.7%. • $SATA $99.75 (-0.3% w/w), 13.0% effective yield. SATA notional crossed $1B as the ATM printed $92M and funded 1,375 more BTC. The pref shorts capitulated: 2.9% of float short, down from 8.1%, with 0.6 days to cover. Where digital credit closed, updated daily:
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In 2023, more than 5,000 attended the 30th Annual "OWN IT!" Baron Conference at New York's iconic Met Opera House. The 2024, 31st Annual "Building Legacy" Baron Conference on November 15th at The Met… features exceptional executives of SpaceX...MSCI...Arch Capital...and Red Rock Resorts...the Baron Capital team...incredible entertainment...and an ice cream cone served by former ice cream truck driver Ron... Oh yeah...good luck winning one of three awesome Tesla Y door prizes. All expenses, including door prizes...are paid by @BaronCapital...not our clients... Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the investment carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the Funds. You may obtain them from the Funds’ distributor, Baron Capital, Inc., by calling 1-800-99-BARON or visiting Please read them carefully before investing. Portfolio holdings as a percentage of net assets as of June 30, 2024 for securities mentioned are as follows: Space Exploration Technologies Corporation - Baron Asset Fund (2.9%), Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (0.9%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (10.3%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (6.1%), Baron Opportunity Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (13.2%*); Tesla, Inc. - Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (3.2%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (8.6%), Baron Global Advantage Fund (3.3%), Baron Opportunity Fund (3.5%), Baron Partners Fund (28.9%*), Baron Technology Fund (2.5%); MSCI Inc. - Baron Asset Fund (0.5%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (2.5%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.1%), Baron Growth Fund (9.8%), Baron Partners Fund (1.8%*); Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Baron Asset Fund (4.8%), Baron Durable Advantage Fund (2.1%), Baron FinTech Fund (3.0%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (6.4%), Baron Growth Fund (12.7%), Baron International Growth Fund (2.8%), Baron Partners Fund (9.5%*); Red Rock Resorts, Inc. - Baron Discovery Fund (1.6%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (3.9%), Baron Growth Fund (1.5%), Baron Partners Fund (1.5%*), Baron Real Estate Fund (1.7%), Baron Small Cap Fund (3.6%). *% of Long Positions. Portfolio holdings are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. All expenses associated with this conference are paid by Baron Capital, Inc. No conference expenses are paid by Baron Funds. BAMCO, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Baron Capital, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA).
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Multiply any number by 9 and the sum of the integers will aways equal 9. Example: 54671 X 9 = 492039; 4+9+2+0+3+9 = 27; 2+7= 9
🏜️ Top 10 driest major US cities (300,000+ people) by average annual rainfall: 1. Henderson, NV — 5.1 in 2. Las Vegas, NV — 5.7 in 3. Bakersfield, CA — 7.1 in 4. Phoenix, AZ — 7.9 in 5. Riverside, CA — 7.9 in 6. Mesa, AZ — 8.3 in 7. Albuquerque, NM — 9.0 in 8. El Paso, TX — 9.2 in 9. Fresno, CA — 9.9 in 10. San Diego, CA — 10.7 in
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