Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac @Welt and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt. Pics:
359 Following 385.3K Followers
Deutsche CEO Sewing sounds the alarm on #France#: Its fiscal & political instability is a “wake up call” for Europe. The bond mkt is flashing red: France’s 10y spread over Germany has surged to 156bps, highest since 2011. Not a debt crisis yet, Sewing says.
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where the primary deficit (deficit before interest payments) is among the Eurozone’s largest: The OECD projects 3.1% for 2027, a stark reversal from pre-pandemic surpluses as the budget is deep in the red. That helps explain why JPMorgan puts the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise Germany’s debt ratio at 3.4% of GDP, vs just 1% for Italy. BUT: France faces an even bigger adjustment: 4.9% of GDP to put debt on a sustainable path.
Show more
Wall Street’s calm is deceptive: Vix at 18.58, but single-stock implied volatility (VIXEQ) at 40.92; more than twice as high. The index masks the turbulence beneath the surface. Diversification works, until stocks start moving together.
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where the govt is hosting its first investment summit in Berlin, taking a page from France’s “Choose France” playbook. Since end-2019, real capital investment has FALLEN 6.9%, while govt consumption has RISEN 15.2%. GDP is up just 1.9% over the same period, through Q2 2026. More state consumption, less investment in future growth. Quite a backdrop for “Invest in Germany.”
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where the Left, Greens & SPD have successfully concluded exploratory talks and will move to coalition negotiations in Berlin, pending party approval. Their housing deal: expropriate large landlords’ holdings above 10,000 homes, exempt homes built since 2021, and cap total compensation at €16bn. If that ceiling cannot be met, no expropriation. They also pledge 100,000 new homes. The stakes for Vonovia: ~138,000 Berlin apartments valued at €27.5bn, or 27% of its property portfolio. These are assets exposed, not projected losses. But compensation below market value could destroy shareholder value and tighter rent regulation could squeeze cash flows even if expropriation never happens.
Show more
AI bubble fears meet rising GPU rental prices: Nvidia H100s now cost $2.85 per hour to rent, up 53% from the Feb 2025 low and the highest since 2024. Older chips were supposed to get cheaper as new ones arrived. This chart tells a different story.
Show more
US inflation is running hot, but bonds are rallying. Sep PPI jumped 1.3% MoM, the most since Mar 2022 and more than double the 0.6% expected. Annual inflation hit 6.3%; core excluding food, energy & trade reached 5%. Yet Treasuries barely flinched. Investors seem more worried about the AI selloff hurting growth than inflation pushing yields higher.
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where wholesale power prices are increasingly topping €200/MWh vs an avg of just €96.6 since late June 2024. The latest day-ahead price is €210.67, up 12.5%. France: €212. Spain: €193. Nordic benchmark: €105. Expensive gas, weaker wind and rising heating demand are squeezing much of Europe. Another headwind for Europe's industry before winter even begins.
Show more
AI’s debt warning: CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds sink below 80 cents on the dollar into distressed territory, yielding >15%. CDS price in a 58% chance of default within 5yrs. Shares fell as much as 16%. Elon Musk’s verdict: “yikes.”
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where Berlin is pushing for EU quotas on Chinese chemicals, machinery, and potentially pharmaceuticals, Bloomberg reports. The German trade deficit w/China has hit a record of more than €108bn. Europe’s export powerhouse now wants tougher import barriers. The planned annual cap of 350,000 Chinese hybrid cars would be just the start. Germany wants proposals for more sectors by year-end.
Show more
Microsoft’s $1.4tn comeback: Shares hit their first record in a year at $543.45, up 54% from June’s low. AI spending fears gave way to the fastest cloud growth in 4yrs. Yet MSFT is up just 12% in 2026 vs Nasdaq 100’s 21%. A record high, still playing catch-up. (BBG)
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where the housing market is coming under pressure from higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Europace’s house price index fell 0.35% in Sep: existing houses dropped 0.69%, apartments 0.66%. Yet new-build prices hit another record. W/mortgage rates back >4%, cheaper properties don’t necessarily mean more affordable homes.
Show more
Robert E. Hall (Stanford), Michael Woodford (Columbia) won Nobel Prize in Economics.
Good Morning from Germany, where Labor Minister Bärbel Bas’s resignation could open a window for welfare reform. Her successor Alexander Schweitzer is seen as more pragmatic. Social spending rose to ~32% of GDP in 2025, w/Germany ranking behind only Finland, France & Austria in EU’s 2024 comparison. A new minister. A chance for a new approach?
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where year-ahead wholesale power prices – a key driver of household electricity bills – have climbed to almost €138/MWh, the highest in 3yrs. Expensive gas sets the marginal price under the merit-order system, handing cheaper generators fat windfall profits. The EU is now considering a windfall tax to claw back some of those gains and cushion the blow to consumers.
Show more
The AI boom is becoming a debt boom and credit markets are getting nervous. Oracle’s 5y CDS trades near a record 261bps, implying a 20.4% default probability. SpaceX: 16.5%. Even Nvidia: >7%. AI-related borrowers have issued nearly $500bn of debt this year, Bloomberg reports. The question: how much future AI revenue is already being spent?
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where the govt has more than doubled its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 0.5%. Exports, inventory building & debt-funded spending on defense & infrastructure are powering the rebound. Consumers remain cautious. The catch: growth is forecast to slow to 1.1% in 2027 and just 0.6% in 2028. A fiscal boost buys time. Lasting growth requires reforms.
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where even the safe haven is getting more expensive to insure. German 5y CDS have risen from 7.5 to 13bps amid higher interest rates and growing fears of another Euro crisis. France’s surge has been far sharper, to 82bps. Market-implied 5y default probabilities: Germany 1.2%, France 7.1%.
Show more
OUCH! SpaceX’s credit-risk gauge hits a fresh record amid reports of new borrowing. CDS pricing implies a roughly 15% probability of default by end-2031, assuming a 40% recovery rate.
Show more
Good Morning from Germany, where industrial production unexpectedly rose 2% MoM in Aug, largely thx to a construction surge. Manufacturing gained just 0.6%, held back by carmakers’ summer shutdowns and weaker chemicals output. Full order books and public infrastructure spending offer hope. But the bigger picture: output is still ~8% below its 2021 avg. Stabilisation, w/a long road to recovery.
Show more
