Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac @Welt and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt. Pics:
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Good Morning from #Germany#, where petrol prices are back >€2 per litre even though Brent crude trades at just €77/bbl. One key reason: European gasoline refining margins have surged to an all-time high this week, widening the gap between crude oil and the pump.
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US jobs report screams slowdown beneath the headline: payrolls rose just 57k, but the household survey showed employment plunging 507k and the labor force collapsing 720k. Unemployment fell to 4.2% for the wrong reason: participation cratered to 61.5% from 61.8%.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the reform hammer is finally swinging: govt agreed on one of the biggest reform packages in decades – €10bn tax relief, pension overhaul, more flexible labour laws & less red tape. Investors barely noticed, but the Germany story is getting real. German index ETFs saw net outflows in Q2.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the reform hammer is finally swinging: govt agreed on one of the biggest reform packages in decades – €10bn tax relief, pension overhaul, more flexible labour laws & less red tape. Investors barely noticed, but the Germany story is getting real. German index ETFs saw net outflows in Q2.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the fertility rate has fallen to 1.32 children per woman, the lowest since 1996. Only 654,241 babies were born in 2025, the fewest in postwar history. Even Lower Saxony, Germany’s most fertile state, slipped below 1.4.
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Semis just had a quarter for the history books: the SOX soared 88% in Q2 2026, marking chip stocks’ best quarter ever.
Germany’s inflation surprises to the downside: Headline CPI slows to 2.3% YoY in June, down from 2.6% and below expectations. But core inflation stayed sticky at 2.5% – a reminder that the disinflation story is not fully done yet. Energy relief helps, underlying pressure remains.
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Good Morning from #Germany#, where capital is voting w/its feet: net investment is just 0.2% of GDP, new projects cost 40%–250% more than at the world’s best sites, and permits take 200 days. The old industrial powerhouse is in maintenance mode: too expensive, too slow, and underinvesting in its future.
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OUCH! Yen hits 40y low in historic slide that’s rattled Japan.
Good Morning from Germany, where AI could become the productivity lifeline for an aging economy: Germany’s working-age population may shrink by up to 25% by 2070, while AI could add 0.2-0.7pp to annual growth. Less sci-fi, more invoices, routes & admin automation.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the power market just delivered a lesson in renewable volatility.
Despite sunshine and record solar output, electricity prices surged >€700/MWh this week. Tuesday’s avg was still >€200/MWh.
Why? Wind generation collapsed. Plenty of sun. Almost no wind. Costly electricity.
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My favourite chart from Goldman’s Mark Wilson’s latest Weekly Mash: Micron’s gross margins.
Post-GFC consolidation has turned one of the market’s most cyclical industries into a business-school case study – margins have now hit 85%.
The catch? Even better cyclicals are still cyclicals.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the heatwave is already hitting the country’s economic arteries. Rhine water levels at Kaub – a key bottleneck on Europe’s industrial waterway – have fallen 0.20m in just 3 days to around 0.83m, the lowest since April 2025.
That matters: the Rhine is a crucial transport route for Germany’s chemical industry, including BASF, Covestro and Evonik. Low water can restrict barge loads, raise logistics risks and disrupt supply chains. For now, barge rates to Basel are still flat – but the heat is on.
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The change in hyperscaler vs chip stock free cash flow is stunning! (via BBG)
OUCH! #Bitcoin# just dropped below its key 200-week moving average; a level long watched by crypto bulls as a major line in the sand. Momentum has clearly turned, and the chart is now testing whether this is just another shakeout… or the start of a deeper reset.
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Good Morning from Germany, where consumer confidence remains stuck near crisis levels. GfK Consumer Sentiment for July edged up only slightly to -29.2 from -29.7, still far below pre-Covid levels. Income expectations improved a bit, but buying appetite stays weak and savings intentions high; bad news for Germany’s private consumption engine.
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Wall Street’s demand machine is still humming: Goldman sees ~$700bn of US equity issuance in 2026 – just 1% of Russell 3000 market cap – while gross buybacks of >$1tn should outweigh supply. IPOs are back. But buybacks remain the bigger force.
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Good Morning from #Germany#, where business sentiment is crawling back from the abyss as uncertainty wanes. Ifo Business Climate rose to 85.6 in June from 85.0, beating est 85.5. Current conditions jumped to 87.0, while expectations edged up to 84.1, missing est 84.8. Firms hope geopol tensions ease after the Iran-war shock, but all 3 Ifo components remain far below their long-term avg. Recovery, yes, but still no boom.
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Good Day from Germany, where the state pension system is set for reform. The current pay-as-you-go model is coming under growing pressure: fewer workers are paying in, while more retirees are drawing benefits. To ease the strain, the govt plans to add a funded pillar to the system. Following the Swedish model, employees and employers would each contribute 1% of wages into a share-based sovereign wealth fund, which will inject “at least” €30bn per year into financial markets.
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Good Morning from Germany, where the public sector is the only part of the economy still creating jobs. While industry is shedding workers, public-sector employment rose last year to just under 5.5mln people; equal to 12% of the entire workforce. 10yrs ago, the figure was only ~10%.
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