full solo @MarketBubble stream highlights: 0:00 Won the Market Bubble Invitational trading comp! 0:54 Our next trading competition: the @BullpenFi 1→100K challenge 2:00 @pear_protocol x @BullpenFi: best weekly pear trade wins 50 $HYPE 4:20 New advanced hyperliquid charts on Bullpen! 5:30 The onchain edge polymarket has that nobody talks about 6:20 My read on Kevin Warsh's first FOMC 7:50 Deposit and withdraw crypto from your bank, 0 fees 9:00 Picking my first trade of the bullpen 1K: Minimax 11:40 How I'm trading minimax 12:50 Everything you can trade on bullpen 13:35 Why I'm long $MU $MRVL $SNDK into earnings 14:13 How I think about TA, live charting $MU and $INTL 19:50 Where I'm buying $MU 20:15 My $SPCX thesis and how I'm playing it 22:30 What's on my watchlist rn: $GOOGL $SOLS $BOT $SNDK 24:15 Where $HYPE goes from here 28:40 $BP vs $HYPE and why I'm investing in backpack 29:30 Answering your questions

Announcing Fugu-Ultra v1.1 🐡 We’ve been thrilled by the reception to the Fugu model family. Thanks to everyone who tried it, shared feedback, and trusted Fugu with real work. Today, we’re releasing Fugu-Ultra v1.1 → Upgraded to incorporate the latest frontier models, resulting in stronger performance across every benchmark shown, including gains of up to 7.9 points over v1.0, with particularly strong results on ProgramBench and Terminal Bench 2.1. Fugu-Ultra v1.1 is more capable across coding, agentic tasks, and advanced reasoning, and available at the same price as Fugu-Ultra v1.0 The frontier keeps moving, and Fugu keeps getting better.

Bitcoin’s drawdowns are getting shallower. Deepest drawdown by halving epoch: 93.1% → 84.9% → 83.4% → 76.7% → 53.1% so far. Volatility remains. The pattern is changing.

Bitcoin is being used more than ever. The 30-day average sits at 673,822 transactions/day as of July 5, the highest reading in Bitcoin's entire 17.5-year history, and it's up +92% year-over-year. Yes, Bitcoin is being used nearly twice as much as it was a year ago. 2026 is the busiest year on record, and it's not close. Comparing apples to apples (Jan 1 → Jul 5 each year), the 2026 YTD daily average is 535,334 transactions per day, up +38.9% versus the same window in 2025. That beats the prior record holder - 2024's 480K - by a comfortable margin. Every previous "peak adoption" year has now been eclipsed by a partial 2026. The acceleration inside the year is the real tell... it's a ramp. Monthly average daily transactions in 2026: January 391K → April 560K → May 645K → June 652K. Throughput stepped up roughly 65% from Q1 to Q2. The breakout is recent and it's steepening, which is why the tail of the chart glows. Cumulative transactions crossed 1.39 billion all-time. It took until May 2024 to cross the first billion, so Bitcoin added its most recent ~390 million in barely 2 years. 43% of every Bitcoin transaction that has ever been confirmed happened after January 2023. Nearly half the network's entire lifetime activity is compressed into its most recent ~15% of calendar time. 2026 alone has already added ~99 million transactions in half a year. The long-run growth rate is absurd by design: from 14 transactions on day one to 1.39B, the cumulative count has compounded at ~187%/year... obviously flattered by a microscopic base... ...but the level growth (raw transactions added per year) is now larger than ever.

Had the chance to catch up on earnings from @BitGo and @FWDind Quick Summary: BitGo is mainly representative of the infra layer being compressed with few catalysts in the short term. Margins are compressing across the board. Assets on platform are resilient and institutional clients keep onboarding, but there isn't much to be excited about beyond prices going up again. Take rates on the core trading business continue to compress, derivatives are still soft, and the competitive landscape is fierce. Staking shows the same dynamic: institutions negotiate lower take rates, so growth comes in at worse economics. Stablecoin-as-a-Service is still relatively small. Beyond the fact that stablecoin supply hasn't grown much, you're essentially underwriting the growth of the market outside USDT and USDC. A very small slice, and not one I'm particularly bullish on. The silver lining: BTGO traded flat on the print, so pretty much all of this looks priced in already. And underneath the margin noise, the parts of the business that are hardest to replicate keep compounding: the custody relationships, the regulated footprint, and the stablecoin reserve balances that grow regardless of where take rates settle. 📊 Headline Financials Total Revenue: $4,329.4M, +14.7% QoQ, +79.6% YoY (mostly gross-recognized spot pass-through) Revenue Net of Direct Costs: $42.5M vs $49.0M in Q1, roughly -13% QoQ. The economically relevant line Net Loss: (19.0)M vs $(60.7)M in Q1. Improvement is mostly a smaller unrealized BTC mark ( (18.8)M vs $(53.7)M) plus SBC normalizing off the IPO spike Adjusted EBITDA: $(4.2)M vs $(1.7)M in Q1 and +$3.0M in Q2'25. Excluding +$5.6M of realized disposal gains they don't strip out, underlying is closer to $(10)M Cash: $159.0M. 2,523 BTC (~$147.7M). No corporate debt. New $50M buyback. $1.3M restructuring charge tied to ~$15M annualized savings 🔍 Segment Detail Digital Asset Sales: $4,197.5M rev, +14.7% QoQ, +84.3% YoY. Net contribution ~$7.1M. Margin 17 bps vs 32 bps in Q1 and 19 bps in Q2'25 on lower spot spreads and lower derivatives mix. Q1's mix-driven margin improvement reversed in one quarter Staking: $64.7M rev, +30.9% QoQ, -28.8% YoY. Take rate 6.0% vs 16.1% in Q1 and 10.0% in Q2'25. Volume up, monetization down. Take rate path of 7.6% → 16.1% → 6.0% over three quarters makes this the least predictable line Subscriptions and Services: $27.5M rev, +7.7% QoQ, +8.5% YoY. Includes one-time ecosystem/implementation work Stablecoin-as-a-Service: $38.8M rev, +1.7% QoQ, +148.0% YoY. Take rate 8.0% vs 7.4% in Q1 and 2.6% in Q2'25. Restricted reserves at $4,634.9M, +5.5% QoQ and +39.9% YTD, the durable driver. ~$155M annualized run rate at improving take rates Interest Income: $0.8M