this is what a semiconductor options desk actually does all day. a former imc trader explains how they made money off asian banks that had no choice but to trade: "in asia a lot of banks offer structured products, very complicated derivatives, to retail clients. people buy those products and now the banks are short them. to hedge, they trade on the options markets." "as a market maker you can buy data on the product issuance of banks, and based on their issuance and the current underlying stock, you can estimate what their risks are and what risks they would need to offload onto the general market." "I can make the judgment that it's probably good to trade against these people. not because they're stupid, but because they have to hedge away this risk. it's just good expectancy to buy based on the fact that you're trading against someone who has to." from "Odds on Open"

Amplify filing for a Pro Sports Private & Public Ownership ETF $PROS which is a theme ETF tracking public sports companies plus a few privates. Again, this is exactly how I thought private cos fit best in ETFs: in the 15% illiquid bucket to 'complete' the theme

To put a really fine point on it, the USG bond market is a prediction market. Not figuratively, but literally. You're betting on what 12 voters (the FOMC) will do at the next meeting. "That's all I believe that a bond market, at least in the US, could ever be." - @thestalwart