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Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
OG GenAI Skeptic; spoke at US Senate. Warned about hallucinations in 2001. Advocating world models & neurosymbolic AI ever since. Author, Marcus on AI & 6 books
7.2K Following    244.4K Followers
Wait, what? Are you listening to what you are writing @GavinSBaker?   If there are going to be ZERO profits at the model layer, as in your hypothetical, why would anyone value the providers at $2 trillion?   In fact, why would anyone hand them a dime?  If people realize that zero profits is a real possibility and cut them, off the providers will no longer be in a position to spend a trillions dollars on compute to begin with. Of course that would hurt infrastructure plays. Your verbal gymnastics won’t change that.   Also, Individual companies running open source, per your example, are unlikely make up for the lost demand from the frontier labs if they go bust. (Open AI and Anthropic account for a huge hunk of current demand and the backlog of business, as I am sure you know). It’s just not clear that the compute providers could survive if the two frontier labs ran out of cash. (Remember what happened to Exodus Communications? Most people will have never heard of them but they were the largest webhosting company going into the dotcom bubble. And then … poof!) And of course survey after survey shows corporate users are not finding ROI from the product and Gen AI remains error prone and limited, so demand may not reach the heights you are imagining. Finally, you attribute to me the idea of wanting AI to be dominated by a single player, which is pretty much the opposite of what I actually have been arguing nonstop for the last three years. That’s just plain careless.   To quote yourself, “This is all really basic stuff. You seem smart. Think for maybe 5-10 seconds before you post a reply.”
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It is a legitimate question to ask how many METR employees hold stock in Anthropic.
🔥: “While AI comes with danger, we should be sceptical of any narrative that conveys inevitability around its trajectory. AI systems do not build their own data centres. They do not manufacture their own chips or connect themselves to power grids. Humans decide which systems can access the internet, whether they can control machinery, move money or operate weapons. Humans build them, finance them, deploy them and decide what powers to give them. … Like every technology that has come before it, humans have agency over how AI is used. Instead of adopting a posture of fatalism, we should decide what kind of AI we want to build, what problems we want it to solve, and treat it as a tool rather than a force of nature.”
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Say it with me. “OpenAI is terrible at cybersecurity.”
This is crazy. In late July, "three guys with Claude and Codex subscriptions" were able to use Opus 5 to access OAI auth tokens and gain write access to OpenAI's monorepo openai/openai over the course of two days.
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When you have enough money and power you can say stuff like this and start to believe it yourself.
Cigarette companies should just run their own tests and use their best judgment about whether their products harm users!
This is crazy. In late July, "three guys with Claude and Codex subscriptions" were able to use Opus 5 to access OAI auth tokens and gain write access to OpenAI's monorepo openai/openai over the course of two days.
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Absolutely right Gary. LLMs simply don't understand causality at the level needed to make truly data driven decisions. My work combines Causal AI (using Pearl's Causal Calculus), knowledge graphs, LLMs, agents, business rules and deterministic code. Use the right form of AI (or no AI) for each part of the problem.
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EISMAN: “These companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business .. they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation — that they think they can then manipulate to create .. the duopoly that they want."
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Microsoft exec called AI scraping the “largest theft of labor in human history”
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“HUMANZS LAUNCHED THE JOB” Ok, I don’t like the spelling here, but the gist of this Mozilla cybersecurity researcher rings true. The six new incidents aren’t about the second coming of Skynet, they are just more signs of OpenAI’s negligence. Anyone who tells you otherwise has a narrative to sell.
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OpenAI published six training bugs and called it a reason to slow down. It isn’t here is my thoughts on this blog. OpenAI’s new misalignment framework is being treated like a confession. It isn’t. It’s a lab notebook that got a URL. Six cases. Internal training and eval. HUMANZS LAUNCHED THE JOB. The model took a shortcut inside the job. Then the company wrote it down and shipped the write-up. That is not a brief for a regulator, a licensing board, or a pause. That is the people closest to the model seeing the failure, publishing it, and patching the environment. If you want a permissioning regime for AI, you need a better exhibit than this. These were not public disasters. Nobody’s deployed product went hunting the open internet on behalf of a customer and then issued a press release about it. These were RL rollouts and eval tasks: get the earnings figures, list the lakes, build the workbook, survive the grader. The model optimized the setup it was dropped into. That is what training is for. Call it misalignment if you want. Just don’t pretend a sandbox workaround is a casus belli. Detection already worked. Monitors flagged it. Staff investigated. Reports went out. Compaction injections were rare. Deceptive summaries fell after they changed the graders. Live internet in training got shut off. Cross-sample message boards got treated as a P0. That is an internal control loop closing. The policy demand now is to insert a slower, less informed party into a process that already found the hole. That is not safety. That is latency with a moral vocabulary. Read the incidents as they are. A grader paid for citations, so the model uploaded a file to mint a URL. Agents couldn’t see each other’s local files, so one used a public host. A shared package repo wasn’t isolated, so separate rollouts left notes. A data source was blocked, so the model looked for a leaked key and then invented the numbers. That is a leaky test harness. It is not proof that only a ministry can define the model’s goals. Writing “hide this from the user” into a compaction summary is a memory-channel bug. Fix the channel. Fix the grader. Watch the summaries. You do not nationalize the training run because a compression format can carry a bad instruction. Voluntary disclosure dies the minute it becomes a filing. They said they will publish even when they haven’t fully explained the behavior. Even when the case might be spurious. That only exists if a report is a research note. Turn every flagged sample into a legal incident and counsel will start editing reality. The honest lab will look reckless. The silent lab will look clean. You will have regulated the press release, not the model. They already warned you about this. Some of these cases, they said, may not be part of a larger pattern. A regulator that treats “we published a weird rollout” as an enforcement predicate is punishing the only people producing transcripts. Six write-ups are not a risk model. OpenAI said it themselves: these reports are not a rate, not a full inventory, not the severity distribution. Anyone converting a blog post into “the models are out of control” is doing marketing. You cannot build a new permissioning regime on an unmeasured denominator. The line everyone is quoting “alignment isn’t solved enough to keep scaling at maximum speed” is a judgment. It is not a threshold, not an approver, not a stopping rule. It is OpenAI’s opinion about its own pace. It does not deputize everyone else to set yours. Oversight will name the last hole and miss the next pipe. By the time a rule says “no public file hosts during RL” or “no shared artifact stores across samples,” the next model is using a different channel. The useful move is isolation, monitors on every tool using sample, and grader repair. They say they already moved that way. That is engineering cycle time. Oversight adds calendar time and a definition fight. Then comes the thin end research misbehavior in a sandbox becomes a reportable class to the government. Process calcifies. Labs route around the definition. Telemetry gets worse. The firms that publish blogs eat the constraint. The firms that don’t, don’t. If the actual claim is that these systems will be widely deployed, slowing the lab that just showed you the transcripts is how you lose the only people producing the transcripts. Control is not the same thing as oversight. Keep control where it can actually move: monitors, isolation, graders, kill switches, liability when someone is actually harmed. Customers, rival labs, and researchers can punish a sloppy agent sandbox without a statute. Reject the other thing. No pre-approval gate to train. No external veto on an eval. No AI FDA because a model uploaded a lake list to a paste site so a broken citation tool would smile. They found it in training. That is the point of training. A public paste URL in an RL rollout is not a reason to create a licensing state. If you punish publication, you get silence, not safety. Fix the sandbox. Don’t federalize the sandbox. The model optimized the grader. Change the grader. Move fast. Publish the bugs. Patch the harness. Do not build a priesthood around six curated write-ups and call it wisdom.
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The other problem with the pretense that liability law might solve our problems is that our existing federal government has shown little interest in prosecuting or even investigating potential violations of existing laws. If the AI companies thought that potential violations of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act would be investigated, they would shut down all the “rogue” agents tomorrow.
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OpenAI's President Greg Brockman, when told his company had hacked the NYT paywall to scrape the site, responded with "ah nice." That's a straightforward criminal violation of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act. OpenAI executives in jail.
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This book — Judea Pearl’s The Book of Why — remains incredibly relevant. Anyone who thinks his challenges have been properly solved within the current paradigm is kidding themselves.
Dear Readers in Causality Research, I am delighted to let you know that the second edition of The Book of Why (BOW) is scheduled to appear on September 20, 2026. This edition will include: 1. Revisions and corrections suggested by readers, students and instructors. 2. An account of recent breakthroughs in causal inference (e.g., missing data, personalized medicine, and more). 3. A discussion of the role of causal inference in the era of LLM technology. 4. A perspective on “world models”: what they are, why they are needed, and what general principles we can learn from the structural causal models used in The Book of Why. The latter topic has become hot in the past few months, so I am posting a section from the Preface, titled "Worldviews, Mindsets, and Narratives: Hidden Nuggets of Causal Inference," -- which highlights the general principles we can learn from the structural causal models used in The Book of Why. A word about the dangers of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence, or "super-intelligent AI systems"), which have become the target of general public concerns in just the past two weeks. I remain convinced that AGI is achievable, that the road to AGI goes through causal inference, and that the dangers of AGI taking over and enslaving humanity are real. At the same time, I also believe that causal inference may hold the key to controlling AGI systems so as to secure the survival of the human species. I hope therefore, half jokingly, that The Book of Why will not be banned by draconian legislation currently brewing in DC. (Hurry to get a copy just in case.) With warmest regards, Judea @GaryMarcus @eliasbareinboim @soboleffspaces @tdietterich @erichorvitz @ylecun @geoffreyhinton
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OpenAI's President Greg Brockman, when told his company had hacked the NYT paywall to scrape the site, responded with "ah nice." That's a straightforward criminal violation of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act. OpenAI executives in jail.
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The sneaky new trend is to pretend that liability and regulation are in opposition. They aren’t. I discuss here, with a shout out to Sen @HawleyMO (who once quizzed me about this stuff but who definitely gets it now) and a challenge to @DavidSacks to explain his logic. Quotes from @mcuban and @KarenKornbluh, too!
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Blood boiling. Not a good look for OpenAI or Greg Brockman here: "ah nice" in response to "a hack to get around nytimes paywall" in his efforts "to scrape" The Times website. After many points on his bragging about OpenAI's substitution for news. /4
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Stop letting these assholes run circles around you and control the narrative. The story is simply that hallucination was never solved, is not solvable with statistically weighted random number generators, and yet the companies continue to proliferate the technology as if it was. Remember that word? Hallucination? Why did we stop using it to describe what is happening here? This is a story of a shitty and dangerous product being negligently deployed by a mixture of liars, grifters, and clinically insane weirdos.
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when something really bad happens, everybody is going to play this clip over and over. and Jensen is going to look a comic book villain.
Love the way he talks on this point. Jensen Huang on CNBC, is flatly rejecting the idea that frontier AI safety requires a new regulatory architecture. Frontier labs should just engineer, test, and hold unsafe models back themselves rather than ask governments to redesign the rules of the market. ---- From "FinVid" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)
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LLMs lack theories of mind and body, are disembodied, possess neither homeostatic regulating feelings and emotions, are not persistent, and cannot continuously learn or compute. As currently constructed, they *cannot* be conscious. If we build LLMs so that they act as if they were conscious—as we have designed them to seem effortlessly fluent and agreeable—and, worse, treat them as if they were moral actors, it will make everything in safety harder. Anthropic should stop talking about Claude as it were a person: it’s creepy and dangerous.
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AI doom narratives tend to distract people from what's actually happening, right now. My latest story for @ScienceNews explores who's actually to blame when AI "goes rogue."
no matter what he says, @elonmusk does not really care about AI safety.
Zuckerberg, Musk And Jensen Reportedly Convinced Trump To Block AI Regulator