Jackson hole会议有关ai的摘录 1，AI的发展速度与经济增长潜力 Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago. 资本和劳动力共同创造了处于AI核心地位的大语言模型。用户通过购买Token来使用这些模型。据报道，仅两家领先实验室的Token年化销售额就已超过1,000亿美元，同比增长逾500%。 2. AI可能成为新的生产要素 The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:美联储正在密切关注这一切。我们认识到，AI是一个新的变量——甚至可能成为一种新的生产要素——它将同时影响经济运行和货币政策的实施。这带来了一些重要的研究问题： Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?AI的应用是否会推动整个经济体的生产率显著且持续提高？如果会，这种变化将在何时出现？ Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution? Token的使用与劳动力之间究竟是互补关系，还是竞争关系？下一代AI模型是否需要投入更多资本，抑或这些模型本身能够帮助开发出资本需求较低的解决方案？ 3. AI产业的收益将由谁获得 Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?另一个尚未确定的问题，是AI最终会形成怎样的市场结构。资本收益最终将流向哪里、又将在多长时间内实现，目前并不明确。在发展初期，经济剩余中有多少会流向稀缺资产的所有者——包括AI实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间推移，又有多少价值会由一般企业和消费者获得？AI将对劳动者以及美联储就业使命产生哪些广泛影响？ 4. Token价格与模型分层 Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?同样，我们尚不知道Token的均衡价格。未来是否会出现明显的Token分层，使用户愿意支付越来越高的费用来使用最先进的前沿模型？较旧模型的Token价格是否会下降至其边际成本水平？ 5 美联储将成立专项工作组 We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.我们将借助一个专门研究生产率与就业问题的工作组，深入分析这些事项。我与该工作组以及另外四个工作组负责人的初步交流令人鼓舞。To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.不过需要明确的是，这些工作组的建议将在以后提出，不会影响我们在当前政策环境下所作的决定。但我相信，今天投入的这些研究工作，将使我们在应对未来政策挑战时准备得更加充分。 6. AI已经成为资本开支增长的重要动力 Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.市场对资本支出和企业盈利增长的预期都相当高。我将继续观察其增长速度的变化，也就是所谓的“二阶导数”。AI投资对资产价格、企业信心、消费者收入和消费支出所产生的后续影响，同样值得密切评估。 我的看法：Warsh这篇演讲把AI视为一种可能出现的新生产要素，这是一个偏积极的看法。美联储最关心的并非单纯的技术进步，而是AI对生产率、就业、产业收益分配、Token定价以及货币政策的长期影响。Kevin同时认为，AI投资已经对现实经济产生显著作用——今年美国资本支出增长的一半以上可能来自AI建设。

I propose that Richmond’s next supportive housing site be located at the location shown below. I invite all councillors who voted for the three-year extension of supportive housing to continue demonstrating their commitment to the community — starting a little closer to home. @CarolDayRmd @Gillanders_L @bogberry 我提议下一个列治文支持性住房的建设点位置如下图中所示，请所有投票支持性住房延长3年的市议员们继续持续为社区的贡献！

I’d like to share that I’ll be leaving Bandai Namco at the end of 2025. With the TEKKEN series reaching its 30th anniversary—an important milestone for a project I’ve devoted much of my life to—I felt this was the most fitting moment to bring one chapter to a close. My roots lie in the days when I supported small local tournaments in Japanese arcades and in small halls and community centers overseas. I still remember carrying arcade cabinets by myself, encouraging people to “Please try TEKKEN,” and directly facing the players right in front of me. The conversations and atmosphere we shared in those places became the core of who I am as a developer and game creator. Even as the times changed, those experiences have remained at the center of my identity. And even after the tournament scene grew much larger, many of you continued to treat me like an old friend—challenging me at venues, inviting me out for drinks at bars. Those memories are also deeply precious to me. In recent years, I experienced the loss of several close friends in my personal life, and in my professional life I witnessed the retirement or passing of many senior colleagues whom I deeply respect. Those accumulated events made me reflect on the “time I have left as a creator.” During that period, I sought advice from Ken Kutaragi—whom I respect as though he were another father—and received invaluable encouragement and guidance. His words quietly supported me in making this decision. Over the past four to five years, I’ve gradually handed over all of my responsibilities, as well as the stories and worldbuilding I oversaw, to the team, bringing me to the present day. Looking back, I was fortunate to work on an extraordinary variety of projects—VR titles (such as Summer Lesson), Pokkén Tournament, the SoulCalibur series, and many others, both inside and outside the company. Each project was full of new discoveries and learning, and every one of them became an irreplaceable experience for me. To everyone who has supported me, to communities around the world, and to all the colleagues who have walked alongside me for so many years, I offer my deepest gratitude. I’ll share more about my next steps at a later date. Thank you very much for everything. 【Postscript】 Although I will be leaving the company at the end of 2025, Bandai Namco has asked me to appear at the TWT Finals at the end of January 2026, so I expect to attend as a guest. For 30 years I kept saying, “I’ll do it someday,” and never once performed as a DJ at a tournament event. So instead, I will be releasing—for the first and last time—a 60-minute TEKKEN DJ-style nonstop mix (DJ mix), personally edited by myself, together with this announcement. Listening to it brings back many memories. Thank you again, sincerely, for all these years. ‘TEKKEN: A 30-Year Journey – Harada’s Final Mix’ by Katsuhiro Harada 1 is on #SoundCloud# December 8, 2025 - The Final Day of TEKKEN’s 30th Anniversary - Katsuhiro Harada [日本語版 (Japanese version)] このたび、2025年末をもちまして、私はバンダイナムコを退職することにいたしました。 長く携わってきた『鉄拳』シリーズが30周年という大きな節目を迎え、ひとつの区切りとして最もふさわしい時期であると考えたためです。 私の原点は、日本のゲームセンターや、海外コミュニティの小さな講堂やコミュニティセンターで、まだ小規模なトーナメントをサポートしていた時代にあります。 アーケード筐体を自ら運び込み、「鉄拳もぜひ遊んでみてほしい」と声をかけながら、目の前の参加者と向き合った日々。 あの場で交わした言葉や空気が、私という開発者の核を形作りました。 時代が変化しても、あの経験が自分の中心にあります。 そしてトーナメントシーンが大きく成長した後も、皆さんは旧知の友人のように私に声をかけ、会場で対戦したり、バーで『一緒に飲もう』と誘ってくれました。 それらもまた、大切な思い出です。 ここ数年間、私生活においては友人達との死別があり、仕事においては、私が尊敬する多くの先輩方の引退や逝去に触れてきました。 そうした出来事の積み重ねが、私に『開発者として残された時間』について考える契機を与えました。 その過程で、私がもう一人の父親のように敬愛する久夛良木健さんにも相談し、貴重な助言と励ましのお言葉をいただきました。 この言葉もまた、今回の決断を静かに後押しするものとなりました。 そして、この4〜5年をかけて私の担ってきたすべての業務やストーリーや世界観、そして責務をチームに段階的に引き継ぎ、今日に至ります。 振り返れば、VR作品（サマーレッスンなど）や『ポッ拳』、ソウルキャリバーシリーズをはじめ、自社他社問わず数多くのプロジェクトに携わる機会に恵まれました。 いずれのプロジェクトも新しい発見と学びに満ち、かけがえのない経験となりました。 これまで支えてくださった皆様、世界中のコミュニティの皆様、そして長年ともに歩んできた仲間たちに深く感謝申し上げます。 次の歩みについては、改めて皆様にお伝えいたします。 これからも、どうぞよろしくお願いいたします。 +あとがき 2025年末をもって退職致しますが、2026年1月末のTWT FINALには顔を出してほしいと会社からお願いされていることもあり、FINALにはゲストとして顔を出すと思います。 これまで30年間『いつかやるよ』と言い続けてやってこなかったトーナメントイベントでのDJですが、その代わりとして“最初で最後のDJ風60分ノンストップ鉄拳ミックス（私による初編集DJ mix）”も、今回のポストに合わせて公開します。 ‘TEKKEN: A 30-Year Journey – Harada’s Final Mix’ by Katsuhiro Harada 1 is on #SoundCloud# 様々な思い出が蘇ります。改めて皆さんありがとうございました。 2025年12月8日 - 鉄拳30周年最終日 - Katsuhiro Harada