Saudi Arabia's crude export flows are facing renewed uncertainty: Saudi Arabia's crude exports fell -460,000 barrels per day in July, to 4.19 million barrels per day. The 746-mile pipeline carrying crude from Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea coast has been a key factor in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, making Yanbu Saudi's primary alternative export route. However, Yanbu has faced fresh threats after Yemen's Houthis pledged to blockade Saudi ports and claimed attacks on Saudi vessels and energy facilities last month. Meanwhile, Yanbu shipments have become harder to track as more vessels switch off their transponders, though satellite images showed 6 very large crude carriers loading at the port over the weekend, a possible sign exports are picking back up. Saudi Arabia's crude exports remain highly volatile.

US hiring plans are improving: US-based employers announced plans to add 16,095 jobs in July, marking a +47% increase from 10,933 in June, the strongest July total since 2022. By comparison, US hiring plans stood at just 3,200 in July 2025, or -80% below this year's level. Aerospace and Defense led all industries last month, with 4,625 announced hires, followed by Technology at 2,470 and Automotive at 2,068. Year-to-date, US hiring plans surged +25% YoY, to 107,500 workers, the strongest January-to-July total since 2023. Technology leads all sectors with 17,231 announcements in 2026, followed by Automotive at 14,704 and Aerospace/Defense at 12,516. US hiring is finally showing signs of life.

BREAKING: Unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings for Japan's 4 largest life insurers rose +7% in Q2 2026, to a record $96 billion. All 4 insurers, Nippon Life, Daiichi Life, Sumitomo Life, and Meiji Yasuda, reported increases in paper losses. This marks the 7th consecutive quarterly increase, with unrealized losses more than tripling over the period. Japanese life insurers typically hold government bonds and other debt securities until maturity to match their long-term insurance obligations. However, a potential surge in customer policy cancellations could force them to liquidate those holdings to meet payouts, putting pressure on both investment portfolios and earnings. This comes as 30-year Japanese government bond yields surged above +4.0% in May for the first time since the bonds were introduced in 1999, driven by concerns that Prime Minister Takaichi's administration may increase fiscal spending. Pressure on Japan's financial institutions is intensifying.

Hedge funds are rapidly unwinding their bearish Yen bets following US-Japan FX intervention: Leveraged funds cut their net short Yen positions by -74,440 contracts, to 63,600 contracts, over the 5 weeks ending August 4th, according to CFTC data. This was one of the sharpest reductions in short positioning since the 2008 Financial Crisis. At the end of June, leveraged funds held 138,000 net short contracts, the largest short position since 2007. This comes as Japanese authorities purchased ~$85 billion worth of Yen between July 30th and 31st to prop up the currency, the largest 2-day currency intervention since 2011, when Japan intervened in the aftermath of the tsunami that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. This also marked the first coordinated action between Japan and the US in 15 years, after the Yen weakened to its lowest since 1986. Historic intervention is changing FX market dynamics.

The Kobeissi Letter for the week of August 10th has been published and may be viewed through the link below: The Chart of the Week for the week of August 10th has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below:

BREAKING: President Trump says he is “low keying it with Iran” and he is prepared to allow economic pressure to mount as opposed to ordering a new military offensive, per Axios. Details include: 1. On Saturday, Iran issued a new list of demands to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz 2. “We are only semi-negotiating with them,” Trump said 3. US officials say President Trump is looking to “de-escalate for now” US stock market futures open in under 5 hours.

BREAKING: Global equity funds attracted +$21.2 billion in inflows in the week ending August 5th. This follows +$27.7 billion in inflows the week prior and marks the 11th consecutive weekly inflow. European equity funds led with +$12.5 billion in inflows, the largest weekly total since July 8th. This was followed by Asian funds at +$8.2 billion, while US funds recorded -$1.6 billion in outflows. Since the start of June, global equity funds have attracted +$215 billion in inflows. Investors are extremely bullish on global stocks.

BREAKING: President Trump has been floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to "walk away" from the Iran War without a nuclear deal should Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per WSJ. Details include: 1. This objective reportedly became "more difficult" yesterday when Iran insisted on its highest price yet for reopening the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran is now seeking billions of dollars in US payments, the removal of US troops from the region, among other things to reopen Hormuz 3. US officials said Trump is patient and expected to ride out the latest developments as long as gas prices remain where they are 4. Trump has reportedly told senior aides that Iran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency The Iran War negotiations are becoming increasingly complicated.

Wall Street is paying less attention to the Magnificent 7: Monthly mentions of the "Magnificent Seven" across news stories on the Bloomberg terminal are down to ~1,400, near the lowest since Q4 2023. This marks a -70% decline from the Q1 2024 peak of ~4,300 mentions, which came shortly after the term was introduced in 2023. A similar pattern occurred with the "FANG" and later "FAANG" labels, originally referring to Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google before Apple was added. Monthly mentions of "FANG" and "FAANG" surged to a record ~2,800 in Q4 2018. Subsequently, they dropped -82%, to just ~500 mentions by early 2020. Investor attention has shifted away from the Mag 7.