one of the more interesting new primitives i’ve seen is @perpdotcity turning live data feeds into perpetual markets prediction markets work well when something eventually resolves yes or no, but most of the world doesn’t move like that shipping traffic, power prices, company revenue and compute demand are constantly changing they already have a perp tracking the number of cargo ships and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, updated every 15 minutes using live AIS data so instead of betting on whether the strait closes by a certain date, you can trade the actual flow of traffic as sanctions, convoys and geopolitical risk change it this is basically financializing the rate at which reality is moving if the data is reliable and liquidity comes, every valuable information stream becomes its own market feels like one of those ideas that looks niche until there are thousands of them

think people are looking at HIP-3 the wrong way launching a new market is permissionless now but liquidity is still extremely concentrated, one deployer has roughly 98% of the volume the obvious opportunity isn’t launching another random perp it’s building the liquidity, oracle, market making and distribution layer every new market needs

prediction markets just became programmable public’s new agents can watch event odds and use them to trigger a stock or bond trade fed cut odds cross 70% → buy duration recession odds jump → reduce bank exposure the new primitive is simple: event probability → portfolio action this is how prediction markets become financial infrastructure

zcash spent 10 years trying to become private bitcoin now bitcoin might get zcash-style privacy without a fork, bridge or new token if shielded bitcoin works, the entire privacy coin trade gets awkward fast

we called protocol-owned liquidity defi 2.0 last cycle the real version is protocols becoming onchain capital allocators > fees build a treasury > the treasury holds productive assets > those assets become collateral borrowed capital funds liquidity and growth without printing another reward token the uncomfortable question is whether tokenholders actually own that balance sheet or are just spectators with governance rights

starting to think the best RWA trade isn’t going to be the RWA it’s whoever turns all this into collateral $1b already deposited into morpho on robinhood chain, ~$450m borrowed if tokenized stocks keep growing the obvious next step is people levering them, borrowing against them, LPing them, refinancing them etc same thing happened with ETH first everyone wanted to own it, then an entire economy got built around making the asset productive watching borrow growth / utilization / fees way more than TVL here TVL with no borrows is tourists TVL + rising utilization is an actual credit market feels early as hell

prediction markets are speedrunning 100 years of market structure problems in public first insider information now markets on words/actions people can influence themselves next comes agents finding “public” information faster than any human possibly can this category is going to need way more market design than people realize

HIP-3 probably ends with people trading things that never had a liquid futures market before everyone focuses on stocks + commodities because they’re obvious i’m waiting for the strange stuff private companies, indexes invented by communities, creator revenue, maybe even protocol KPIs permissionless perps supercycle

hype looks ready to print $100 at any moment now but imo the journey matters more than the round number hyperliquid began by doing one thing exceptionally well: perps it built the product before the token, found real usage, distributed ownership to users and connected protocol activity back to $HYPE through staking, collateral and fee-funded buybacks now $HYPE is around $96 with roughly $2.1b of open interest on its own perp this is no longer a dex token trading purely on narrative. it has become a liquid claim on one of crypto’s most important pieces of market infrastructure and the next chapter is much bigger than another ath payward intends to bring permissioned HIP-3 perpetual markets to US clients. at the same time, the hyperliquid policy effort is pushing regulators to create a real path for onchain perps in america the next is letting every app become a frontend to the same markets

prediction markets might create a funny arms race AI gets better at finding information before humans humans realize they’re increasingly the slow side of the trade so instead of competing with the machine, they start using the same market to hedge against what the machine knows one side monetizes information the other monetizes protection that’s a real market