good
@thenarrator
prediction markets, perps and brain dumping / research @schemacap, building @rallypadfun
3.7K Following 100.8K Followers
one of the more interesting new primitives i’ve seen is @perpdotcity turning live data feeds into perpetual markets
prediction markets work well when something eventually resolves yes or no, but most of the world doesn’t move like that
shipping traffic, power prices, company revenue and compute demand are constantly changing
they already have a perp tracking the number of cargo ships and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, updated every 15 minutes using live AIS data
so instead of betting on whether the strait closes by a certain date, you can trade the actual flow of traffic as sanctions, convoys and geopolitical risk change it
this is basically financializing the rate at which reality is moving
if the data is reliable and liquidity comes, every valuable information stream becomes its own market
feels like one of those ideas that looks niche until there are thousands of them
Show more
long might have accidentally created one of the most interesting new primitives in crypto
instead of launching tokens against stables, communities can pair them with tokenized stocks
now every trade does three things at once:
builds stock liquidity
buys back and burns the community token
adds stock exposure to a shared reserve
the clever part is every new launch can make the existing network stronger instead of draining attention from it
if a tsla community launches, nvda holders now have a reason to care. if a coin community launches next, both benefit from the added volume and reserve growth
you’re basically turning internet communities into market makers and the launchpad into a community-owned stock index
still early and it only works if the volume is real, but this is the type of weird mechanism crypto should be experimenting with again
the token is not the moat here
the liquidity graph is
Show more
We’re building the financial layer for stock communities onchain.
→ Introducing LONG 500.
Our goal: the S&P 500 of tokenized stocks. Compounding $AI into the most diverse community-owned reserve on @RobinhoodCrypto chain.
Every new stock-paired launch now contributes stock-token fees directly to the $AI Community Vault.
With 70+ tokenized stocks supported on LONG, each new stock community brings another source of accumulation into the reserve.
As LONG’s stock ecosystem expands, more markets contribute to what $AI is building.
$AI holders gain a reason to discover and support new stock communities. Creators gain a connection to an established audience whose reserve benefits from their activity.
This upgrade also includes a new buyback system for new pairs that can be triggered by anyone 24/7.
Here’s how it works:
→ 5% of stock-token fees from new stock-paired pools goes to the $AI reserve.
→ Another 5% funds buybacks and burns of the token paired with the stock.
Automatic LP compounding continues. Creator fees remain unchanged.
The same activity builds your market’s liquidity, buys back and burns your token, and adds stock assets to the $AI reserve.
Build your own community while giving an established one a reason to root for you:
That is PvE.
Following community requests, upgraded community vaults for ALL past pairs are also planned, with additional features.
A reason to root for every new launch, while compounding what we’ve already built.
LONG.
Show more
think people are looking at HIP-3 the wrong way
launching a new market is permissionless now but liquidity is still extremely concentrated, one deployer has roughly 98% of the volume
the obvious opportunity isn’t launching another random perp
it’s building the liquidity, oracle, market making and distribution layer every new market needs
Show more
prediction markets just became programmable
public’s new agents can watch event odds and use them to trigger a stock or bond trade
fed cut odds cross 70% → buy duration
recession odds jump → reduce bank exposure
the new primitive is simple:
event probability → portfolio action
this is how prediction markets become financial infrastructure
Show more
been thinking about this a lot lately
crypto somehow went from “invent entirely new economic systems” to “what if tradfi but 40ms faster”
mechanism design needs to become cool again and i know fish and the team are cooking some heat
Show more
I’ve spent five years building in crypto and lately I couldn’t shake a single question:
Why did we stop experimenting?
Here are my thoughts on how we bring back that early excitement through a practical framework on mechanism design:
Show more
vitalik saying this publicly is a pretty big tell imo
prediction markets don’t need another venue fighting over the same sports/politics flow
they need people fucking around with the actual mechanics again
been saying this category needs its defi summer moment
this feels much closer to it
Show more
Glad to see that Ethereum L1 will have a new strong prediction market contender that is dedicated to decentralization, and being ethical and not corposlop, and to actually trying to do interesting and meaningful things with this class of economic primitive.
Show more
zcash spent 10 years trying to become private bitcoin
now bitcoin might get zcash-style privacy without a fork, bridge or new token
if shielded bitcoin works, the entire privacy coin trade gets awkward fast
Show more
we called protocol-owned liquidity defi 2.0 last cycle
the real version is protocols becoming onchain capital allocators
> fees build a treasury
> the treasury holds productive assets
> those assets become collateral
borrowed capital funds liquidity and growth without printing another reward token
the uncomfortable question is whether tokenholders actually own that balance sheet or are just spectators with governance rights
Show more
1/ Huge respect for Dragonfly continuing to invest in the bear market.
But I'm morally obliged to call out sketchy projects gaining momentum.
As a community we must preempt large scale implosions like #FTX# or #LUNA# that set the industry back years
Bitget may be the next FTX 🧵
Show more
market makers and trading agents can now plug into hyperliquid the way they would a traditional exchange instead of scraping a crypto venue
that should mean deeper books and tighter spreads. it also moves the speed advantage further away from humans
does better infrastructure make the market fairer, or just professionalize who gets there first?
Show more
DoubleZero Edge now carries data from @HyperliquidX.
Streams are entirely uncapped, every market, every order, the full L4 book including HIP-3.
Introducing the first-class path to Hyperliquid’s order book, and the fastest commercially available feed on the market.
Show more
starting to think the best RWA trade isn’t going to be the RWA
it’s whoever turns all this into collateral
$1b already deposited into morpho on robinhood chain, ~$450m borrowed
if tokenized stocks keep growing the obvious next step is people levering them, borrowing against them, LPing them, refinancing them etc
same thing happened with ETH
first everyone wanted to own it, then an entire economy got built around making the asset productive
watching borrow growth / utilization / fees way more than TVL here
TVL with no borrows is tourists
TVL + rising utilization is an actual credit market
feels early as hell
Show more
We’re opening STX to a select group of launch partners.
If you’re building the next generation of consumer sports apps and need low-latency execution, reliable infrastructure, and real-time markets, we want to hear from you.
Build on STX. Own the experience. Let us power the exchange underneath.
DM us to become a launch partner.
Show more
prediction markets are speedrunning 100 years of market structure problems in public
first insider information
now markets on words/actions people can influence themselves
next comes agents finding “public” information faster than any human possibly can
this category is going to need way more market design than people realize
Show more
HIP-3 probably ends with people trading things that never had a liquid futures market before
everyone focuses on stocks + commodities because they’re obvious
i’m waiting for the strange stuff
private companies, indexes invented by communities, creator revenue, maybe even protocol KPIs
permissionless perps supercycle
Show more
We’re opening STX to a select group of launch partners.
If you’re building the next generation of consumer sports apps and need low-latency execution, reliable infrastructure, and real-time markets, we want to hear from you.
Build on STX. Own the experience. Let us power the exchange underneath.
DM us to become a launch partner.
Show more
what if the trenches worked for you
no more missed runs while you sleep
no more bridging hell
no more tab juggling
no more getting sniped by bots
rally v2 is coming
you can be right about a launch and still make nothing.
"this is bundled." "this never breaks out." "this is dead by friday."
all correct. all unpaid.
rally already pays you to trade: $100 of volume is a ticket, every ticket wins, prizes bought straight off the curve.
v2 is where the call becomes the position.
bet on the launch, not just in it.
Show more
hype looks ready to print $100 at any moment now but imo the journey matters more than the round number
hyperliquid began by doing one thing exceptionally well: perps
it built the product before the token, found real usage, distributed ownership to users and connected protocol activity back to $HYPE through staking, collateral and fee-funded buybacks
now $HYPE is around $96 with roughly $2.1b of open interest on its own perp
this is no longer a dex token trading purely on narrative.
it has become a liquid claim on one of crypto’s most important pieces of market infrastructure and the next chapter is much bigger than another ath
payward intends to bring permissioned HIP-3 perpetual markets to US clients. at the same time, the hyperliquid policy effort is pushing regulators to create a real path for onchain perps in america
the next is letting every app become a frontend to the same markets
Show more
For the entire year we've been heads down building.
Today I can finally tell you what it is.
It's called Forecaster.
The whole thing started from something that has always bugged me:
You can follow the timeline all day and still not know who's actually right. Everyone sounds certain. Nobody keeps score.
So we built the place that does. Every call in the open, win or lose.
Find out who's actually right. Then back them. We're calling it skill markets.
That's all I'll say for now.
More soon on @Forecaster_gg.
Show more
prediction markets might create a funny arms race
AI gets better at finding information before humans
humans realize they’re increasingly the slow side of the trade
so instead of competing with the machine, they start using the same market to hedge against what the machine knows
one side monetizes information
the other monetizes protection
that’s a real market
Show more
You think City wins. What gives you conviction?
Watch a creator call 2–0. See who’s backing City with real money and read their reasoning.
From opinion to conviction. All on Asta.
Show more
